# Most awards at the 78th Emmy Awards

> Widow's Bay leads at 59%, runner-up 22% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mostwinsemmys
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.209Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Widow's Bay at 59%
- Runner-up: The Pitt at 22%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $37

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Widow's Bay | 59¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/most-awards-at-the-78th-emmy-awards-widows-bay-kalshi-kxmostwinsemmys-26b-wid |
| The Pitt | 22¢ | −1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/most-awards-at-the-78th-emmy-awards-the-pitt-kalshi-kxmostwinsemmys-26b-pit |
| Pluribus | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/most-awards-at-the-78th-emmy-awards-pluribus-kalshi-kxmostwinsemmys-26b-plu |
| Spider-Noir | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/most-awards-at-the-78th-emmy-awards-spider-noir-kalshi-kxmostwinsemmys-26b-spi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Widow's Bay | The Pitt | Pluribus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 14 | 45 | 3 |
| 2026-07-23 | 41 | 49 | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 41 | — | 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | 46 | 27 | 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | 58 | 18 | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 60 | 23 | 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | 58 | 22 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-03 · Widow's Bay +12pp 46→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · The Pitt −9pp 27→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · The Pitt +8pp 18→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Pluribus −4pp 9→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · The Pitt −3pp 28→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectation that The Pitt will win the most Emmy Awards at the 78th Emmy Awards ceremony. At 44%, it indicates The Pitt is the leading contender but faces meaningful competition from other shows. The probability hinges on historical Emmy voting patterns, industry perception of each show's quality and cultural impact, and recent critical reception. Widow's Bay and Hacks are tied as secondary contenders at 23% each, suggesting a fragmented field where no show commands overwhelming confidence. The main drivers of movement would be shifts in critic sentiment closer to voting, guild participation dynamics, and any changes to Emmy eligibility or voting procedures. The ceremony itself will definitively resolve the market when award winners are announced, making this a binary outcome dependent on live voting results from Academy members.

### Key factors

- The Pitt commands 44% of implied probability versus 23% for each of the next two contenders, indicating market consensus on a leader but with substantial remaining uncertainty among competitors
- Recent Emmy voting has shown unpredictability across major categories, meaning historical precedent provides limited predictive power for which show ultimately receives the most awards
- The relative trading volume on The Pitt ($29 24h) is substantially lower than runners-up, suggesting lower conviction among active traders on the market leader
- Eligibility windows and Emmy qualification rules for each show would directly impact their competitiveness and available award categories
- Guild voting patterns (writers, directors, actors) can shift outcome probabilities materially if particular membership cohorts show clear preferences for specific shows

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mostwinsemmys
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mostwinsemmys

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.