# Will Marc Marquez be the Gran Premio de Espana Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 19 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/motogprace
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:51.490Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $69K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Grand Prix postponed or canceled | 3¢ | ±0 | $53K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-miami-grand-prix-be-postponed-or-canceled-kalshi-kxf1delay-26mia-yes |
| Marco Rubio | 15¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-marco-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-mrub |
| Marco Rubio | 23¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-rubio-be-the-nominee-for-the-presidency-kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-mr |
| Before 2028 | 6¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-scheffler-win-the-grand-slam-before-2-kalshi-kxscottieslam-28 |
| Grand Slam | 68¢ | +19pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-announcers-say-during-rangers-vs-tig-kalshi-kxmlbmention-26may02texdet-gran |
| any man other than Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner | 57¢ | ±0 | $651 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-man-other-than-carlos-alcaraz-and-jannik-kalshi-kxatpgrandslamfield-26-field |
| Marc Marquez | 16¢ | +1pp | $391 | kalshi | /markets/will-marc-marquez-be-the-2026-motogp-world-champio-kalshi-kxmotogp-26-mama |
| Grand Slam | 50¢ | +4pp | $358 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-announcers-say-during-rangers-vs-tig-kalshi-kxmlbmention-26may03texdet-gran |
| Ariana Grande | 6¢ | −28pp | $248 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-t-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-ari |
| Grand Slam | 35¢ | +1pp | $173 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-announcers-say-during-blue-jays-vs-t-kalshi-kxmlbmention-26may03tormin-gran |
| Madaris Grant | 10¢ | −12pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-madaris-grant-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-o-kalshi-kxohprimary-08d26-mgra |
| Fabiano Caruana | 19¢ | +1pp | $73 | kalshi | /markets/will-fabiano-caruana-win-the-grand-chess-tour-2026-kalshi-kxchessgrandtour-26-fcar |
| Marco Rubio | 25¢ | −1pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-rubio-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-presi-kalshi-kxvpresnomr-28-mr |
| Alireza Firouzja | 10¢ | — | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-alireza-firouzja-win-the-grand-chess-tour-202-kalshi-kxchessgrandtour-26-afir |
| Above 100K | 6¢ | −22pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-have-above-100k-pure-album-sale-kalshi-kxpurealbums-pet26aug06-100k |
| The Weeknd | 34¢ | −10pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-be-featured-on-ariana-grandes-albu-kalshi-kxfeature-26pet-wee |
| Marc Andreessen | 20¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marc-andreessen-announce-theyre-leaving-calif-kalshi-kxcalifornialeave-27-mand |
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-would-revise-federal-housing-kalshi-kxbills-hous |
| Marco Bezzecchi | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-bezzecchi-be-the-2026-motogp-world-cham-kalshi-kxmotogp-26-mabe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 31 |
| 2026-04-19 | 28 |
| 2026-04-26 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Grand Slam +31pp 16→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Grand Slam +31pp 18→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Ariana Grande −28pp 43→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · The Weeknd +23pp 15→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Above 100K −22pp 28→6¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/motogprace
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=motogprace

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.