# Will Trackhouse Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 6 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/motogpteams
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:13.093Z
Category: sports · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-14

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $302

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ducati Lenovo Team | 9¢ | ±0 | $192 | kalshi | /markets/will-ducati-lenovo-team-be-the-2026-motogp-teams-w-kalshi-kxmotogpteams-26-duca |
| Aprilia Racing | 82¢ | +1pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-aprilia-racing-be-the-2026-motogp-teams-world-kalshi-kxmotogpteams-26-apri |
| Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-monster-energy-yamaha-motogp-be-the-2026-moto-kalshi-kxmotogpteams-26-mons |
| Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pertamina-enduro-vr46-racing-team-be-the-2026-kalshi-kxmotogpteams-26-pert |
| Red Bull KTM Factory Racing | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-red-bull-ktm-factory-racing-be-the-2026-motog-kalshi-kxmotogpteams-26-redf |
| Trackhouse Racing | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trackhouse-racing-be-the-2026-motogp-teams-wo-kalshi-kxmotogpteams-26-trac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 81 |
| 2026-05-24 | 86 |
| 2026-06-01 | 45 |
| 2026-06-07 | 83 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Trackhouse Racing will accumulate the most points across its entire team roster in the 2026 MotoGP season to win the constructors' championship. At 17%, the market is assigning Trackhouse relatively low odds compared to established powerhouses like Ducati, KTM, and others. The current probability likely reflects Trackhouse's historical performance and rider roster compared to competitors, though mid-season performance data and rider consistency will significantly influence this estimate through the year. The 2026 MotoGP season conclusion in November will definitively resolve this outcome.

### Key factors

- Trackhouse's 2025 season performance and points accumulation compared to the championship frontrunners
- The quality and experience of Trackhouse's contracted riders for the 2026 season relative to competing teams
- Motorcycle reliability and development pace—whether Trackhouse's bikes remain competitive or fall further behind leading manufacturers
- Mid-season race results and points standings as of summer 2026, which would provide early indicators of championship viability
- Injuries or departures of key Trackhouse personnel or riders that could impact team performance through the season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/motogpteams
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=motogpteams
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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