# Will Sadie Sink be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 20 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/moviecast
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.245Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $117

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh Jackman | 24¢ | −28pp | $103 | kalshi | /markets/will-hugh-jackman-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-m-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-hug |
| Colman Domingo | 26¢ | ±0 | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-colman-domingo-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-col |
| Daniel Radcliffe | 3¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-radcliffe-be-cast-in-the-next-official-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-dan |
| Adam Driver | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-adam-driver-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-me-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-ada |
| James McAvoy | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-mcavoy-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-m-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-jam |
| Harris Dickinson | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harris-dickinson-be-cast-in-the-next-official-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-har |
| Margaret Qualley | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-margaret-qualley-be-cast-in-the-next-official-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-mar |
| Julia Butters | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-julia-butters-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-jul |
| Hunter Schafer | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hunter-schafer-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-hun |
| Sadie Sink | 93¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sadie-sink-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-men-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-sad |
| Ayo Edebiri | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ayo-edebiri-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-me-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-ayo |
| Jesse Plemons | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jesse-plemons-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-jes |
| Denzel Washington | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denzel-washington-be-cast-in-the-next-officia-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-den |
| Glen Powell | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-glen-powell-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-me-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-gle |
| Jacob Elordi | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-elordi-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-m-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-jac |
| Paul Mescal | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-mescal-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-me-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-pau |
| Austin Butler | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-austin-butler-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-aus |
| Joe Keery | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-keery-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-men-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-joe |
| Will Poulter | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-will-poulter-be-cast-in-the-next-official-x-m-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-wil |
| Patrick Stewart | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-stewart-be-cast-in-the-next-official-kalshi-kxmoviecast-xman29-pat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | 28 |
| 2026-08-03 | 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | 25 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-10 · Hugh Jackman −28pp 52→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Ayo Edebiri −26pp 32→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Adam Driver −21pp 25→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Julia Butters −21pp 27→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Jesse Plemons −21pp 26→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects the estimated likelihood that actress Sadie Sink will be cast in Marvel Studios' next theatrical X-Men film. The 5% probability suggests markets view her casting as unlikely relative to other potential candidates, as shown by comparable contracts pricing Harris Dickinson at 7%. The probability would rise if credible reporting indicated Marvel was pursuing Sink for a specific mutant role, or if industry insiders confirmed her involvement in upcoming X-Men casting announcements. It would fall if Marvel officially cast competing actors or announced X-Men film timelines that excluded her. The key uncertainty driver is the timing and scope of Marvel's next mutant-focused film—currently unscheduled with no announced cast. Resolution will depend on official Marvel Studios announcements regarding X-Men project greenlight and cast reveals, likely occurring at major studios events or through trade publications.

### Key factors

- No X-Men film has been officially announced by Marvel Studios with production timeline or cast as of July 2026
- Sink's primary recent visibility derives from Stranger Things; comparable young actors being priced 7% or higher suggests her odds reflect limited perceived alignment with Marvel's likely casting direction
- Marvel's track record shows casting decisions for major ensemble properties involve A-list or emerging action-adjacent talent, creating competitive disadvantage for most individual candidates
- The contract's 5% baseline appears consistent with general background probability for any single actor in an unannounced casting pool of 50+ viable candidates
- Harris Dickinson at 7% represents the current market's highest-priced individual actor, suggesting market uncertainty about Marvel's specific casting preferences

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/moviecast
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=moviecast

## License

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