# MSI 2026 Winning Region: LCK (South Korea)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 70% across 1 contract — refreshed 50 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/msi-winning-region-lck-south-korea
Updated: 2026-06-08T10:20:11.473Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 70% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCK (South Korea) | 70¢ | +2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/msi-2026-winning-region-lck-south-korea-polymarket-0x4890e36c536eef20111bd617f6479b6b7384ad2ebf16e18a108d989dc0aa9f9e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 65 |
| 2026-05-27 | 65 |
| 2026-06-01 | 76 |
| 2026-06-08 | 71 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · LCK (South Korea) +5pp 71→76¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · LCK (South Korea) −5pp 76→71¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that a South Korean team from the LCK region will win the Mid-Season Invitational 2026. At 79%, the market assigns substantially higher odds to LCK than other regions. This reflects LCK's historical dominance in international League of Legends competition, particularly at MSI where Korean teams have won multiple tournaments. The probability could shift based on recent performance trajectories of LCK teams versus representatives from other major regions like LEC, LPL, and wildcards leading into the tournament. The MSI 2026 event itself, scheduled for later in 2026, will ultimately determine the outcome. Until then, movements in this probability would likely track major regional tournament results, roster changes, and head-to-head international matchups that occur before MSI begins.

### Key factors

- LCK's historical MSI win rate and international tournament track record relative to other regions
- Current year-to-date performance of top LCK teams compared to title contenders from LEC, LPL, and other regions
- Roster composition, player transfers, and team stability within the LCK heading into MSI 2026
- Results from regional championships and qualifying tournaments that determine which teams represent each region
- Recent international tournament results or scrims that reveal competitive gaps between regions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/msi-winning-region-lck-south-korea
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=msi-winning-region-lck-south-korea

## License

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