# MT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

> Ryan Busse leads at 90%, runner-up 9% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 35 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mt01-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:07.215Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Ryan Busse at 90%
- Runner-up: Samuel Forstag at 9%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $189

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Busse | 90¢ | ±0 | $67 | polymarket | /markets/mt-01-democratic-primary-winner-ryan-busse-polymarket-0x8b704423ac73928245d8d76766d85a5f914a7ed07012d01cf7c3e31a7eeedc0a |
| Samuel Forstag | 9¢ | −4pp | $122 | polymarket | /markets/mt-01-democratic-primary-winner-samuel-forstag-polymarket-0x67817d1cc4b72e5ba8cc9437f4cb979fc30898b1d5042f72bc770b9fc757768a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ryan Busse | Samuel Forstag |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | — | 30 |
| 2026-05-17 | 65 | 29 |
| 2026-05-22 | 74 | 19 |
| 2026-05-28 | 90 | 8 |
| 2026-05-29 | 90 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Ryan Busse +9pp 65→74¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Ryan Busse +8pp 82→90¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Samuel Forstag −6pp 18→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Samuel Forstag −4pp 12→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Ryan Busse +3pp 79→82¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mt01-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mt01-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.