# Will Russell Cleveland be the Democratic nominee for MT-01

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mt01d
Updated: 2026-06-04T13:20:12.268Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-06-02

## Headline

- Probability: 95% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Forstag | 95¢ | +36pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-forstag-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mt-kalshi-kxmt01d-26-sfor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 22 |
| 2026-05-25 | 11 |
| 2026-06-01 | 12 |
| 2026-06-03 | 49 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Sam Forstag +36pp 13→49¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Russell Cleveland will win the Democratic primary for Montana's 1st Congressional District. At 31%, the market is suggesting Cleveland faces meaningful but uncertain prospects in what may be a competitive primary race. Primary outcomes depend on several concrete factors: candidate field composition and whether stronger-name Democrats enter the race, voter turnout patterns in Democratic-leaning areas, local fundraising and endorsement dynamics, and how national Democratic resources are allocated to this seat. The race likely will be substantially clarified after the primary filing deadline and once final candidate lineups are known. If high-profile candidates enter or decline to run, the probability would shift significantly. Local polling data and early voting patterns would provide additional clarity closer to election day.

### Key factors

- Whether other established Democratic candidates file to run, which would directly impact Cleveland's primary vote share
- Local fundraising totals and major endorsements from Montana Democratic Party figures and national groups
- Voter turnout levels in Democratic strongholds within MT-01, which typically determine primary outcomes
- Name recognition and prior electoral experience of Cleveland relative to competing primary candidates
- Primary filing deadlines and final candidate field composition in the coming weeks

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mt01d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mt01d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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