# Will JFET leave the John Fetterman

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mtgswitch
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.124Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $23

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Fetterman | 19¢ | +3pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-jfet-leave-the-john-fetterman-john-fetterman-kalshi-kxmtgswitch-27jan-jfet |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marjorie-taylor-greene-leave-the-republican-p-kalshi-kxmtgswitch-27jan |
| Henry Cuellar | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-henry-cuellar-leave-the-democratic-henry-cuel-kalshi-kxmtgswitch-27jan-cuel |
| Thomas Massie | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-thomas-massie-leave-the-republican-thomas-mas-kalshi-kxmtgswitch-27jan-tmas |
| Lisa Murkowski | 18¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lisa-murkowski-leave-the-republican-lisa-murk-kalshi-kxmtgswitch-27jan-lmurk |
| Don Bacon | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-don-bacon-leave-the-republican-don-bacon-kalshi-kxmtgswitch-27jan-dbac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17 |
| 2026-05-07 | 20 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · John Fetterman +3pp 17→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 13% probability that Senator John Fetterman will leave office before a specified date. The relatively low probability reflects that Fetterman currently holds his Senate seat with no announced resignation plans, and senators typically complete their terms absent serious health crises or unexpected circumstances. The probability would rise if credible reporting emerged about his health status, personal circumstances, or stated intentions to resign. The primary uncertainty driver is Fetterman's long-standing health challenges, which have been publicly documented but appear stable under current management. Any significant health event or formal announcement regarding his legislative future would substantially alter this probability. The contract structure suggests the market is pricing in a low but non-negligible risk of departure within the specified timeframe.

### Key factors

- Fetterman's documented history of depression and stroke recovery, which remain potential variables in his continued Senate service
- Absence of current public reporting or statements indicating intention to resign from his Senate position
- Historical precedent showing Senate resignations are uncommon except in cases of health emergencies, legal troubles, or explicit career transitions
- The specific resolution date or condition embedded in the contract, which determines whether early departure scenarios count toward settlement
- Market volume and pricing across related political resignation contracts, which contextualizes confidence levels across comparable outcomes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mtgswitch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mtgswitch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.