# Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.2 million skier visits in Q3 2026

> Above 6.6 million leads at 92%, runner-up 87% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mtn
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.663Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-04

## Headline

- Leader: Above 6.6 million at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 6.9 million at 87%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $117

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 6.6 million | 92¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vail-resorts-inc-report-above-66-million-skie-kalshi-kxmtn-26junskier-6600000.0 |
| Above 6.9 million | 87¢ | −1pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-vail-resorts-inc-report-above-69-million-skie-kalshi-kxmtn-26junskier-6900000.0 |
| Above 7.2 million | 55¢ | −1pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-vail-resorts-inc-report-above-72-million-skie-kalshi-kxmtn-26junskier-7200000.0 |
| Above 7.5 million | 11¢ | ±0 | $39 | kalshi | /markets/will-vail-resorts-inc-report-above-75-million-skie-kalshi-kxmtn-26junskier-7500000.0 |
| Above 7.8 million | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vail-resorts-inc-report-above-78-million-skie-kalshi-kxmtn-26junskier-7800000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 6.6 million | Above 6.9 million | Above 7.2 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | 90 | 85 | 60 |
| 2026-04-23 | 86 | 74 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 72 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | — | 75 | 48 |
| 2026-05-02 | 91 | 84 | 51 |
| 2026-05-08 | 92 | — | 55 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 87 | — |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Above 7.2 million +5pp 51→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Above 6.6 million +3pp 91→94¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether Vail Resorts will report more than 7.2 million skier visits across its resorts during Q3 2026 (July-September), with markets currently pricing this outcome at 47% probability. Q3 represents the shoulder season between summer and fall skiing, making visitation dependent on weather patterns, summer activity levels, and school holiday schedules. The probability reflects uncertainty around whether warm temperatures or precipitation patterns will drive or suppress visits during this typically moderate-traffic quarter. Resolution will occur in October 2026 when Vail Resorts reports official Q3 earnings and skier visit data, providing exact confirmation of the threshold. Key drivers include competition from alternative summer recreation, international tourism patterns, and regional weather conditions across Vail's North American resort portfolio.

### Key factors

- Q3 is historically a lower-traffic season compared to winter months, so the 7.2 million threshold represents a specific operational performance level that requires above-average shoulder-season demand
- Weather patterns in July-September 2026, particularly temperature and precipitation at high elevations, will directly influence both summer activity and early-season ski conditions
- Vail Resorts' official Q3 2026 earnings report (expected October 2026) will provide exact skier visit figures, making this binary outcome completely verifiable
- Competitive pressure from alternative summer destinations and economic conditions affecting discretionary travel spending will influence visitation levels during this period
- The contract's 47% probability suggests near-parity between outcomes, indicating significant genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus view

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mtn
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mtn

## License

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