# Will ARIRANG be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 9 contracts — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/musicreport
Updated: 2026-06-25T18:20:50.714Z
Category: general · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-26

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10-Selling Digital Songs of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: SWIM | 31¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-swim-be-1-on-luminates-2026-year-end-music-re-kalshi-kxmusicreport-topdigsale27dec31-swi |
| Top 10-Selling Digital Songs of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: Choosin’ Texas | 52¢ | −6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-choosin-texas-be-1-on-luminates-2026-year-end-kalshi-kxmusicreport-topdigsale27dec31-cho |
| Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG | 27¢ | −5pp | $104 | kalshi | /markets/will-arirang-be-1-on-luminates-2026-year-end-music-kalshi-kxmusicreport-topvynlsale27dec31-ari |
| Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard?: Choosin’ Texas | 72¢ | −4pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-choosin-texas-be-1-on-luminates-2026-year-end-kalshi-kxmusicreport-topstream27dec31-cho |
| Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | 22¢ | +1pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-be-kalshi-kxmusicreport-topvynlsale27dec31-you |
| Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG | 57¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-arirang-be-1-on-luminates-2026-year-end-music-kalshi-kxmusicreport-topsale27dec31-ari |
| Top 10-Selling CD Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG | 64¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-arirang-be-1-on-luminates-2026-year-end-music-kalshi-kxmusicreport-topcdsale27dec31-ari |
| Top 10-Selling Albums of 2026 in U.S. (Physical & Digital Sales Combined), as Published by Billboard?: you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | 5¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-be-kalshi-kxmusicreport-topsale27dec31-you |
| Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kiss-all-the-time-disco-occasionally-be-1-on-kalshi-kxmusicreport-topvynlsale27dec31-kis |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | 7 |
| 2026-06-25 | 25 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard?: Choosin’ Texas +45pp 29→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Top 10-Selling CD Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG +41pp 16→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Top 10-Selling CD Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: ARIRANG −39pp 55→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Top 10-Selling Digital Songs of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: Choosin’ Texas +35pp 24→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?: Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally −33pp 34→1¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether ARIRANG will be the #1 selling CD album on Luminate's 2026 year-end report published by Billboard. The 10% probability reflects modest odds against this outcome. The contract's current valuation suggests market participants view ARIRANG as a niche or regional album facing competition from established releases. What would move the probability depends on streaming and sales data accumulated through year-end in December. The primary driver will be actual unit sales reported by Luminate in their official 2026 year-end rankings, which Billboard publishes after the calendar year closes. Until that report releases, prices will fluctuate based on chart performance, commercial activity, and media coverage of the album through the remainder of 2026.

### Key factors

- ARIRANG's CD sales performance relative to other major album releases tracked by Luminate through December 2026
- The album's current and projected chart trajectory and commercial momentum in the physical media market
- Whether the album generates sustained consumer demand or relies on concentrated fan purchases in specific periods
- Competition from established catalog titles and major new releases scheduled for H2 2026
- Luminate's methodology for calculating album units and ranking top performers across all format types

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/musicreport
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=musicreport
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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