# Will Elon Musk leave DOGE?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/musk-doge
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:41:19.573Z
Category: politics
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: — at 6%
- Runner-up: Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $700 billion? at 5%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $157K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $690 billion? | 99¢ | +21pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-690-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t690 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $700 billion? | 98¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-700-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t700 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $710 billion? | 98¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-710-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t710 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $720 billion? | 98¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-720-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t720 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $730 billion? | 98¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-730-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t730 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $740 billion? | 98¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-740-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t740 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $750 billion? | 98¢ | +5pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-750-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t750 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $760 billion? | 97¢ | +40pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-760-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t760 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $780 billion? | 94¢ | −1pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-780-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t780 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $770 billion? | 93¢ | −3pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-770-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t770 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $790 billion? | 92¢ | +1pp | $37K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musks-net-worth-for-june-be-above-790-bi-kalshi-kxmusknw-26jun30-t790 |
| Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026? | 62¢ | −1pp | $24K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t2 |
| Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026? | 19¢ | −1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t3 |
| Will Elon Musk buy a major sports team before 2027? | 9¢ | +1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musk-buy-a-major-sports-team-before-2027-kalshi-kxmusksports-27 |
| Will Elon Musk be cast in the next Superman? | 5¢ | — | $22K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musk-be-cast-in-the-next-superman-kalshi-kxactorelonmusk-26-sup |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $690 billion? | Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $700 billion? | Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $710 billion? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 77 | 81 | 77 |
| 2026-06-02 | 98 | 97 | — |
| 2026-06-03 | — | 98 | 98 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | — | 97 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $770 billion? +43pp 53→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $760 billion? +40pp 56→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $740 billion? +34pp 61→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $780 billion? +33pp 62→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $730 billion? +32pp 65→97¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $790 billion?" 92¢; kalshi "Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $780 billion?" 94¢; kalshi "Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $770 billion?" 93¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

### Key factors

- No market data on govt efficiency
- Net worth tracking dominates
- Musk financial outlook stable

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/musk-doge
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=musk-doge

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.