# NACL 2026 Spring Winner

> CCG Esports leads at 33%, runner-up 26% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nacl-spring-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.437Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-05

## Headline

- Leader: CCG Esports at 33%
- Runner-up: NRG at 26%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $895

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCG Esports | 33¢ | +15pp | $118 | polymarket | /markets/nacl-2026-spring-winner-ccg-esports-polymarket-0x9b98d0273ca4d1d3c7e5ea4b640e06ef2a68ad6da3be0cbd218f29c8ff6f8137 |
| NRG | 26¢ | −6pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/nacl-2026-spring-winner-nrg-polymarket-0xfb173babb840921f43a122e2809e388e65fa75929668d31c0719afcdf475dde3 |
| Maryville University | 24¢ | +2pp | $245 | polymarket | /markets/nacl-2026-spring-winner-maryville-university-polymarket-0x75820cce3caba64648c9dfd69bd8efe314ef6363169a7783a622b3b14ac331ac |
| Winthrop University | 7¢ | −34pp | $126 | polymarket | /markets/nacl-2026-spring-winner-winthrop-university-polymarket-0x4cc0fe70113f670ad72884b0ee8b5139a0748b053b648a6c08b65448517f152f |
| Conviction | 6¢ | −32pp | $378 | polymarket | /markets/nacl-2026-spring-winner-conviction-polymarket-0x923b26c2278745c88030e3459209dc0cfaf8d53c2380e20ffa35de7d000413fe |
| Supernova | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nacl-2026-spring-winner-supernova-polymarket-0x21c1a3fa3b7bb45b88dede1be26d7c44799b3f225b83c5b6c2e2916e2d8f9b21 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | CCG Esports | NRG | Maryville University |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 32 | 27 | 48 |
| 2026-05-02 | 32 | 25 | 43 |
| 2026-05-06 | 1 | 26 | 16 |
| 2026-05-08 | 19 | 20 | 22 |
| 2026-05-09 | 34 | — | 24 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Winthrop University −34pp 41→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Conviction −32pp 38→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CCG Esports −30pp 31→1¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Maryville University −27pp 43→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · CCG Esports +19pp 0→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 44% probability reflects market participants' assessment that the current leader has a moderate but not dominant chance of winning NACL 2026 Spring. This estimate sits between the runner-up at 37% and is driven by competitive roster strength, recent team performance, and regular-season standings as the league progresses. The main factors pushing this probability would be tournament seeding outcomes, head-to-head matchup results, and whether the favored team maintains consistency through playoffs. The NACL Spring playoffs—scheduled for the latter part of spring—will be the decisive event that resolves this outcome. Until then, individual series results and any roster changes or player performance fluctuations will move the market probability.

### Key factors

- Current price of 44% represents the leading candidate but leaves 56% probability distributed among at least four other outcomes, indicating a competitive field without a consensus favorite
- NACL Spring playoff bracket seeding and matchup scheduling will determine draw difficulty; a more challenging path would reduce the leader's win probability
- Head-to-head performance data between the leading team and other contenders, particularly the 37% runner-up, will anchor market repricing as playoffs approach
- Trading volume of $60 over 24 hours reflects moderate liquidity; price movements on this contract are sensitive to match results and narratives about team momentum
- The spread between the leader (44%) and runner-up (37%) suggests minimal differentiation in perceived strength, meaning upset potential or injury news could rapidly shift market allocation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nacl-spring-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nacl-spring-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.