# Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 76%, runner-up 57% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:50:50.270Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 76%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 57%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc12420d54a5f52a0e3e6b567c04c4a504cb40f1dfc473234c15c5c8db9fda052 |
| Both Teams to Score | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x6cfc8d4ea986763ba0a10eacb817822ac38af23c8d9d5c31d3a98358ab1f7b8f |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x164f65bdba63b31b0fe7b75fed96ea69c9a6aba1d5daf015c3c6e417b85e9ef8 |
| O/U 3.5 | 29¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xec59e7436c79b9327cf1b9416da41ee55e799520f89361d59944360a652c8852 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-1.5) | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0524ea5d7f1c73584bdce3de66b22fb30eacd6a1ef0bc3b034e5e9e3d3be9f8d |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0x97c68a154393c087eef54aa2afd6a2705e4ec25a08f8c01ad141b53ca8510456 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xe57d5ef3322ea2c9e06b55f96c797d127a6f99dff16c551f4067262033acf288 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-2.5) | 13¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0a811879a31f5a3a43f79b658cfc5b4c22d780bef0efae98d73e39c0f4b1d88b |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5) | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0xa4181124cdfbaaec195dd2665c734963f1e390267c4c321eb161640f93743aa9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 61 | 54 | 53 |
| 2026-05-03 | 61 | 54 | 53 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) +3pp 30→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Nagoya Grampus (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 55% probability reflects market participants' assessment that both Nagoya Grampus and Gamba Ōsaka will score in their upcoming match. This outcome sits above the 38% probability assigned to the runner-up contract, suggesting traders view a two-goal game as more likely than other single outcomes. The probability would move higher if recent form data or team lineups suggest both sides maintain attacking intent despite defensive vulnerabilities. It would move lower if either team confirms injury-depleted rosters or adopts cautious, defensive tactics. The match itself—currently unscheduled in the visible data but typical for J1 League fixtures—will resolve the contract when final goals are recorded. Liquidity remains sparse across most contracts except the outright winner and total-goals bets, limiting precise price discovery.

### Key factors

- Both teams' recent shot-on-target rates and defensive-error frequency relative to season average
- Confirmed starting lineups and injury status of key attacking and defending players for each side
- Historical head-to-head goal-scoring patterns between Nagoya Grampus and Gamba Ōsaka over the past two seasons
- Scheduled kick-off date and time (fixture confirmation needed to establish concrete resolution timeline)
- Market depth and trading volume across the five contracts; current $5 24h volume suggests low participation outside one contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets

## License

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