# Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC

> Nagoya Grampus leads at 43%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nagoya-grampus-vs-kyto-sanga-fc
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.382Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: Nagoya Grampus at 43%
- Runner-up: Kyōto Sanga FC at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $79

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 43¢ | ±0 | $42 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-nagoya-grampus-polymarket-0x37fa89b52f4c15a48ef3c89a82f1fe6f950e84b1b9425b3013aec8337feb2c35 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC | 30¢ | ±0 | $1 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-kyto-sanga-fc-polymarket-0xb023a305c96594cbaf85f2720b92ea05f6a02ee4893c32614c94a98bc42da554 |
| Draw (Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC) | 28¢ | −2pp | $36 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-draw-nagoya-grampu-polymarket-0x581c2c796537621c2da4371e13a00808a67a85a628b4eedfbac5f9f145026060 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Nagoya Grampus | Kyōto Sanga FC | Draw (Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 40 | 33 | 30 |
| 2026-05-07 | 42 | 31 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 42 | 31 | 28 |
| 2026-05-09 | 42 | — | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the market's estimated probability that Nagoya Grampus will win their upcoming match against Kyōto Sanga FC. The three outcomes—Nagoya victory, draw, and Kyōto victory—are nearly balanced, with Nagoya slightly favored at 37% compared to Kyōto's 33% and a draw at 31%. This close clustering suggests limited differentiation between the teams' recent form or betting activity. The market would shift based on lineup changes, injury reports, or head-to-head historical performance. The match itself will resolve the question once played, making the scheduled game date the primary catalyst for price movement in the final trading window before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Current odds show Nagoya as narrow favorites (37%) over Kyōto (33%) with draw probability at 31%, indicating the market perceives marginal tactical or capability advantages
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all three contracts suggests limited recent market interest or conviction, potentially indicating stale pricing
- J.League standing positions, recent form records, and injury status of key players in both squads would typically drive directional movements in similar matchups
- Draw outcome priced at 31% reflects non-trivial probability of a tie, common in competitive league matches with defensive parity
- Match scheduling and any late team news (roster changes, coaching decisions) before kickoff typically catalyze final probability adjustments in sports prediction markets

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nagoya-grampus-vs-kyto-sanga-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nagoya-grampus-vs-kyto-sanga-fc

## License

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