# Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretarygeneral
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $668

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 4¢ | ±0 | $668 | polymarket | /markets/naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-polymarket-0xb14c073b5ff01c3f9a42b15c867475ae38612ecbe3a8945375ba56969c270247 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 15 |
| 2026-06-12 | 8 |
| 2026-06-17 | 3 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 17% probability that Naim Qassem will be replaced as Hezbollah's secretary-general by a specified date. The current low probability suggests markets view his position as relatively stable despite regional tensions. Key factors influencing the probability include the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics, Hezbollah's organizational stability following prior leadership losses, potential diplomatic developments, and any major escalation or de-escalation in cross-border activities. The main uncertainty driver would be significant military events or negotiated settlements that could destabilize or reshape Hezbollah's leadership structure. Without a clearly scheduled resolution event, the market is pricing in baseline political risk in a volatile region, though most consensus assumes continuity in the leadership role.

### Key factors

- Hezbollah's historical leadership succession patterns and organizational resilience following previous leader assassinations
- Current Israeli-Hezbollah military escalation levels and trajectory of cross-border incidents
- Status of regional diplomatic negotiations or ceasefire discussions that could alter Hezbollah's strategic position
- International sanctions or military pressure targeting Hezbollah's operational capacity
- Health or security status of current leadership and internal factional dynamics within the organization

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretarygeneral

## License

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