# Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 6 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascarcupseries
Updated: 2026-06-25T20:20:49.750Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-15

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 6¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-elliott-be-the-nascar-cup-series-champi-kalshi-kxnascarcupseries-ncs26-cell |
| Denny Hamlin | 31¢ | +5pp | $854 | kalshi | /markets/will-denny-hamlin-be-the-nascar-cup-series-champio-kalshi-kxnascarcupseries-ncs26-dham |
| Tyler Reddick | 19¢ | +2pp | $520 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-reddick-be-the-nascar-cup-series-champi-kalshi-kxnascarcupseries-ncs26-tred |
| Kyle Larson | 9¢ | +1pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-larson-be-the-nascar-cup-series-champion-kalshi-kxnascarcupseries-ncs26-klar |
| Christopher Bell | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-christopher-bell-be-the-nascar-cup-series-cha-kalshi-kxnascarcupseries-ncs26-cbel |
| Chase Briscoe | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-briscoe-be-the-nascar-cup-series-champi-kalshi-kxnascarcupseries-ncs26-cbri |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 14 |
| 2026-06-11 | 13 |
| 2026-06-18 | 24 |
| 2026-06-23 | 16 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Denny Hamlin +5pp 26→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Denny Hamlin −3pp 29→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Tyler Reddick +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 10% probability means the market estimates approximately a 1-in-10 chance that Chase Briscoe wins the NASCAR Cup Series championship this season. This relatively low probability reflects his historical performance and competitive position within a field of dozens of drivers competing for the title. The probability could shift based on two main factors: his consistency in race finishes throughout the season, which determines playoff qualification and seeding, and his team's technical performance relative to established championship contenders. The championship will ultimately be decided in November 2026 through the playoff format, with each race result between now and then providing data that would either strengthen or weaken his odds depending on wins, top-5 finishes, and playoff advancement.

### Key factors

- Chase Briscoe's historical championship odds and performance metrics compared to favorites like Ty Gibbs and Joey Logano
- His current season statistics through May 2026, including wins, top-5 finishes, and points standing relative to playoff cut-off position
- Wood Brothers Racing team's car performance and technical developments compared to higher-funded championship-contending teams
- Injury status and driver consistency factors that could affect his ability to compete over the full season and playoffs
- Market depth and liquidity of the Briscoe contract, which shows relatively low trading volume ($4,489 in 24h), suggesting limited consensus confidence

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascarcupseries
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nascarcupseries

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.