# Will Zane Smith record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 14 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascarfastlap
Updated: 2026-05-03T23:05:59.170Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 96¢ | — | $699 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-elliott-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-m-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-chel |
| Denny Hamlin | 11¢ | +1pp | $658 | kalshi | /markets/will-denny-hamlin-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-ma-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-deha |
| Ty Gibbs | 6¢ | — | $617 | kalshi | /markets/will-ty-gibbs-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-main-r-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-tygi |
| Kyle Busch | 13¢ | — | $615 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-busch-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-main-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-kybu |
| Chase Briscoe | 11¢ | — | $581 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-briscoe-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-m-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-chbr |
| Tyler Reddick | 11¢ | −3pp | $483 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-reddick-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-m-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-tyre |
| Chris Buescher | 11¢ | — | $440 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-buescher-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-chbu |
| Ross Chastain | 11¢ | — | $424 | kalshi | /markets/will-ross-chastain-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-m-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-roch |
| Kyle Larson | 24¢ | −34pp | $350 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-larson-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-mai-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-kyla |
| Christopher Bell | 3¢ | — | $337 | kalshi | /markets/will-christopher-bell-record-the-fastest-lap-in-th-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-chbe |
| Noah Gragson | 3¢ | — | $209 | kalshi | /markets/will-noah-gragson-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-ma-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-nogr |
| William Byron | 19¢ | — | $174 | kalshi | /markets/will-william-byron-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-m-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-wiby |
| Joey Logano | 8¢ | — | $157 | kalshi | /markets/will-joey-logano-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-mai-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-jolo |
| Josh Berry | 3¢ | — | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-berry-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-main-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-jobe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 13 |
| 2026-05-03 | 16 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Kyle Larson +36pp 14→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Kyle Larson −34pp 50→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Tyler Reddick −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Zane Smith will record the fastest lap during the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY. At 9%, the probability reflects Smith's historical performance relative to other competitors in this specific event. The current level is driven by Smith's prior track record in fastest-lap competitions and his general competitiveness in NASCAR series racing. The contract resolves when the NASCAR Würth 400 main race concludes, at which point either Smith will have set the fastest lap or another driver will have. Competing fastest-lap probabilities for Carson Hocevar (16%) and Daniel Suárez (6%) suggest market participants view Hocevar as the marginal favorite, with Smith positioned as a mid-tier candidate among potential fastest-lap setters.

### Key factors

- Smith's historical fastest-lap frequency in NASCAR races compared to the 2026 field competing at this specific track
- The relative speed and setup optimization of Smith's vehicle during qualifying and practice sessions leading up to the race
- Track conditions on race day, including weather and track temperature, which affect lap times and tire performance across the field
- Pit strategy and fuel management decisions that may impact which drivers attempt fastest-lap runs late in the race
- Comparison of market-implied probabilities for other fastest-lap candidates (Hocevar at 16%, Suárez at 6%) indicating consensus about the competitive order

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascarfastlap
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nascarfastlap

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.