# Will Kyle Busch beat Ty Gibbs in the racing matchup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 9 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascarh2h
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:50:58.213Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $199K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 4¢ | −2pp | $108K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-larson-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-liqu-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-kyla |
| Ty Gibbs | 9¢ | +1pp | $70K | kalshi | /markets/will-ty-gibbs-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-liqui-m-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-tygi |
| Scottie Scheffler beats Cameron Young | 4¢ | −3pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-scheffler-beat-cameron-young-in-the-c-kalshi-kxpgah2h-cac26sschcyou-ssch |
| Kyle Larson | 10¢ | −4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-larson-be-the-nascar-cup-series-champion-kalshi-kxnascarcupseries-ncs26-klar |
| Kyle Larson | 90¢ | +4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-larson-finish-in-the-top-10-at-nascar-wr-kalshi-kxnascartop10-wr4pbl26-kyla |
| Kyle Busch | 50¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-busch-finish-in-the-top-10-at-nascar-wrt-kalshi-kxnascartop10-wr4pbl26-kybu |
| Kyle Larson | 42¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-larson-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-wrt-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-kyla |
| Kyle Larson | 24¢ | −34pp | $350 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-larson-record-the-fastest-lap-in-the-mai-kalshi-kxnascarfastlap-wr4pbl26-kyla |
| Busch Stadium | 71¢ | −52pp | $223 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-announcers-say-during-brewers-vs-car-kalshi-kxmlbmention-26may04milstl-busc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 10 |
| 2026-04-19 | 12 |
| 2026-04-26 | 11 |
| 2026-05-03 | 18 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Busch Stadium −52pp 63→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Kyle Larson +36pp 14→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Kyle Larson −34pp 50→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Scottie Scheffler beats Cameron Young −29pp 69→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Kyle Larson −26pp 61→35¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascarh2h
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nascarh2h

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.