# Will Ty Gibbs be the Jack Link's 500 Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 12 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascarrace
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:05:59.652Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-22

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1.0M

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Hocevar | 12¢ | −1pp | $134K | kalshi | /markets/will-carson-hocevar-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-l-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-caho |
| Kyle Busch | 4¢ | — | $123K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-busch-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-liqui-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-kybu |
| Denny Hamlin | 22¢ | +4pp | $112K | kalshi | /markets/will-denny-hamlin-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-liq-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-deha |
| Kyle Larson | 4¢ | −2pp | $108K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-larson-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-liqu-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-kyla |
| Chase Briscoe | 7¢ | −1pp | $99K | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-briscoe-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-li-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-chbr |
| William Byron | 3¢ | +1pp | $95K | kalshi | /markets/will-william-byron-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-li-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-wiby |
| Ty Gibbs | 9¢ | +1pp | $70K | kalshi | /markets/will-ty-gibbs-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-liqui-m-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-tygi |
| Chase Elliott | 7¢ | −3pp | $69K | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-elliott-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-li-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-chel |
| Christopher Bell | 13¢ | ±0 | $68K | kalshi | /markets/will-christopher-bell-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-chbe |
| Tyler Reddick | 6¢ | +1pp | $61K | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-reddick-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-li-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-tyre |
| Ryan Blaney | 5¢ | −1pp | $55K | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-blaney-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-liqu-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-rybl |
| Chris Buescher | 3¢ | +1pp | $35K | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-buescher-be-the-wrth-400-presented-by-l-kalshi-kxnascarrace-wr4pbl26-chbu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 6 |
| 2026-05-03 | 8 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Carson Hocevar +4pp 5→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Denny Hamlin +4pp 10→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Chase Elliott +4pp 5→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · William Byron +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Chase Elliott −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascarrace
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nascarrace

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.