# Will Kyle Larson finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Jack Link's 500

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 18 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascartop5
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:06:01.744Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $24K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 33¢ | +10pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-elliott-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-w-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-chel |
| Denny Hamlin | 65¢ | +11pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-denny-hamlin-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-wr-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-deha |
| Christopher Bell | 55¢ | −7pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-christopher-bell-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nasca-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-chbe |
| Kyle Larson | 42¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-larson-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-wrt-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-kyla |
| Carson Hocevar | 36¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-carson-hocevar-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-caho |
| Daniel Suárez | 15¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-surez-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-wr-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-dasu |
| William Byron | 23¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-william-byron-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-w-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-wiby |
| Joey Logano | 23¢ | −12pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-joey-logano-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-wrt-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-jolo |
| Bubba Wallace | 7¢ | −6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-bubba-wallace-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-w-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-buwa |
| Tyler Reddick | 55¢ | +16pp | $893 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-reddick-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-w-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-tyre |
| Chris Buescher | 21¢ | +1pp | $558 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-buescher-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-chbu |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 4¢ | — | $495 | kalshi | /markets/will-shane-van-gisbergen-finish-in-the-top-5-at-na-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-shva |
| Kyle Busch | 5¢ | +15pp | $483 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-busch-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-wrth-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-kybu |
| Connor Zilisch | 9¢ | — | $372 | kalshi | /markets/will-connor-zilisch-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-cozi |
| AJ Allmendinger | 3¢ | — | $343 | kalshi | /markets/will-aj-allmendinger-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-ajal |
| Corey Heim | 9¢ | −4pp | $324 | kalshi | /markets/will-corey-heim-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-wrth-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-cohe |
| Ty Gibbs | 29¢ | +5pp | $156 | kalshi | /markets/will-ty-gibbs-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-wrth-4-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-tygi |
| Brad Keselowski | 24¢ | −12pp | $142 | kalshi | /markets/will-brad-keselowski-finish-in-the-top-5-at-nascar-kalshi-kxnascartop5-wr4pbl26-brke |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 21 |
| 2026-04-30 | 38 |
| 2026-05-01 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Tyler Reddick −23pp 42→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tyler Reddick +16pp 19→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Kyle Busch +15pp 4→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Chase Elliott −14pp 25→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Kyle Larson −13pp 42→29¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nascartop5
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nascartop5

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.