# Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28799.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST

> 31,000 or above leads at 79%, runner-up 78% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nasdaq100maxy
Updated: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.575Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 31,000 or above at 79%
- Runner-up: 31,200 or above at 78%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $58

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31,000 or above | 79¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-3099999-at-the-end-of-kalshi-kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600-t30999.99 |
| 31,200 or above | 78¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-3119999-at-the-end-of-kalshi-kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600-t31199.99 |
| 31,400 or above | 76¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-3139999-at-the-end-of-kalshi-kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600-t31399.99 |
| 30,800 or above | 70¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-3079999-after-issuanc-kalshi-kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600-t30799.99 |
| 31,600 or above | 60¢ | +58pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-3159999-at-the-end-of-kalshi-kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600-t31599.99 |
| 31,800 or above | 57¢ | +58pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-3179999-at-the-end-of-kalshi-kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600-t31799.99 |
| 32,000 or above | 54¢ | +1pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-3199999-at-the-end-of-kalshi-kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600-t31999.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 31,000 or above | 31,200 or above | 31,400 or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-06-10 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| 2026-06-18 | 60 | 64 | 72 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 80 | 76 |
| 2026-06-23 | 79 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 78 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · 31,600 or above −68pp 70→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 31,800 or above −66pp 68→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 31,600 or above +58pp 2→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 31,800 or above +58pp 2→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · 32,000 or above +35pp 34→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 93% probability that the Nasdaq-100 will trade above 28,799.99 at some point between now and December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST. The high probability reflects current market positioning—with the index near historical highs—combined with an eight-month time window that provides ample opportunity for the threshold to be reached even if the index experiences moderate pullbacks. The probability would decline if sustained economic weakness, rising interest rates, or sector rotation away from large-cap technology stocks creates downward pressure. Conversely, strong corporate earnings, Fed accommodation, or broad-based equity strength would reinforce this view. The contract will resolve when the year-end deadline passes; interim volatility and earnings seasons through 2026 will likely be the primary drivers of probability shifts as they influence expectations for tech valuations heading into year-end.

### Key factors

- The Nasdaq-100 closed 2024 above 20,000 and has continued appreciating in early 2026; the 28,800 level represents meaningful but not extreme appreciation from recent levels
- Tighter contracts (28,400 and above) trade at 83%, while looser thresholds (27,700) trade much lower, indicating significant concentration of probability in the 27,700–28,800 range
- An eight-month runway to year-end 2026 substantially increases the statistical likelihood of touching the strike price versus a near-term event, reducing tail-risk sensitivity
- Corporate earnings reports, Fed policy announcements, and macroeconomic data releases through Q3 and Q4 2026 will be primary drivers of intermediate probability adjustments
- Higher-strike contracts (33,000) trade at only 15%, suggesting markets price substantial uncertainty about sustained upside momentum beyond the primary threshold

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nasdaq100maxy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nasdaq100maxy

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