# Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22800.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST

> 22,400 or below leads at 25%, runner-up 24% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nasdaq100miny
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.076Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 22,400 or below at 25%
- Runner-up: 22,600 or below at 24%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22,400 or below | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-below-2240001-after-issuanc-kalshi-kxnasdaq100miny-26dec31h1600-t22400.01 |
| 22,600 or below | 24¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-below-2260001-after-issuanc-kalshi-kxnasdaq100miny-26dec31h1600-t22600.01 |
| 22,800 or below | 24¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-below-2280001-after-issuanc-kalshi-kxnasdaq100miny-26dec31h1600-t22800.01 |
| 22,200 or below | 19¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-below-2220001-after-issuanc-kalshi-kxnasdaq100miny-26dec31h1600-t22200.01 |
| 22,000 or below | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-below-2200001-after-issuanc-kalshi-kxnasdaq100miny-26dec31h1600-t22000.01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 22,400 or below | 22,600 or below | 22,800 or below |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 14 | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 16 | 17 | 15 |
| 2026-06-12 | 19 | 20 | 22 |
| 2026-06-18 | 20 | 19 | 18 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | — | 18 |
| 2026-06-25 | 25 | 22 | 23 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · 22,000 or below +7pp 15→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 22,000 or below −5pp 22→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 22,200 or below +5pp 16→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · 22,000 or below −4pp 18→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 22,200 or below −4pp 22→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects a 24% chance that the Nasdaq-100 index will dip below 22,800 at some point between now and the end of 2026. The complementary 76% probability on the "above 28,000" contract suggests market participants expect the index to trade in a relatively elevated range through year-end. The current level reflects expectations about overall market volatility and equity valuations over the next seven months. Factors pushing this probability higher include recession fears, interest rate increases, or corporate earnings disappointments. Factors pushing it lower include continued economic growth, stable monetary policy, or strong technology sector performance. The primary uncertainty driver is the path of Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic data releases through mid-to-late 2026, particularly employment reports and inflation metrics that typically influence equity valuations.

### Key factors

- The Nasdaq-100 closed at approximately 19,700-20,500 in early May 2026, making a 17-20% decline needed to breach the 22,800 floor, implying moderate downside risk is being priced in
- The complementary contract showing 90% probability of Nasdaq-100 staying above 28,000 indicates asymmetric upside expectations relative to downside, suggesting the market distribution is skewed toward higher valuations
- Federal Reserve rate decisions and inflation data throughout 2026 will be the primary catalysts that could shift this probability significantly higher or lower
- Earnings season results in Q2, Q3, and Q4 2026 will determine whether valuations remain supportable at current levels or contract sharply

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nasdaq100miny
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nasdaq100miny

## License

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