# Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28000 and 28499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST

> 33,000.01 or above leads at 23%, runner-up 7% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nasdaq100y
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.229Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 33,000.01 or above at 23%
- Runner-up: 18,999.99 or below at 7%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $496

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33,000.01 or above | 23¢ | +1pp | $301 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-33000-at-the-end-of-d-kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-t33000 |
| 18,999.99 or below | 7¢ | −2pp | $109 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-below-19000-at-the-end-of-d-kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-t19000 |
| 31,000 to 31,499.99 | 6¢ | +1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-between-31000-and-3149999-a-kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-b31250 |
| 31,500 to 31,999.99 | 4¢ | +1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-between-31500-and-3199999-a-kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-b31750 |
| 29,500 to 29,999.99 | 3¢ | ±0 | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-between-29500-and-2999999-a-kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-b29750 |
| 30,500 to 30,999.99 | 3¢ | −1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-between-30500-and-3099999-a-kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-b30750 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 33,000.01 or above | 18,999.99 or below | 31,000 to 31,499.99 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 26 | — | — |
| 2026-05-10 | 25 | 8 | — |
| 2026-05-11 | 28 | 6 | 3 |
| 2026-05-25 | 40 | — | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 35 | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-05-30 | 29 | 10 | 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | 31 | 5 | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 29 | 7 | 6 |
| 2026-06-07 | 24 | — | — |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 7 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · 33,000.01 or above −6pp 35→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · 33,000.01 or above −6pp 29→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · 33,000.01 or above +5pp 26→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · 33,000.01 or above +3pp 31→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · 18,999.99 or below +3pp 5→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract settles if the Nasdaq-100 closes between 28,000 and 28,499.99 on December 31, 2026, currently assigned a 16% probability by the leading contract. The low probability suggests market participants expect the index to either exceed this range substantially or fall short of it. The current level reflects uncertainty about equity market performance over the next seven months, with the Nasdaq-100 needing to navigate economic data, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve policy through year-end. The main drivers of this probability are expectations for broader tech sector growth versus recession concerns, and whether current market valuations persist or compress. Resolution will occur automatically on December 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM EST when the index's official closing level is recorded, making this a straightforward factual outcome with no discretionary interpretation required.

### Key factors

- Current Nasdaq-100 level relative to the 28,000-28,499.99 range and implied annualized growth rate needed to reach that band by year-end
- Market expectations for corporate earnings growth and profit margins in the technology sector through 2026
- Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory and inflation data releases between now and December 31, 2026
- Concentration risk in mega-cap technology stocks that comprise a significant portion of Nasdaq-100 weighting
- Realized volatility and drawdown severity if equity markets experience a significant correction in the second half of 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nasdaq100y
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nasdaq100y

## License

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