# Will the natural gas close price be above $2.399 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

> above $2.499 leads at 82%, runner-up 79% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/natgasmon
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.071Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Leader: above $2.499 at 82%
- Runner-up: above $2.199 at 79%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $43

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above $2.499 | 82¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-2499-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t2.499 |
| above $2.199 | 79¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-2199-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t2.199 |
| above $2.399 | 79¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-2399-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t2.399 |
| above $2.599 | 78¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-2599-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t2.599 |
| above $2.099 | 76¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-2099-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t2.099 |
| above $2.299 | 73¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-2299-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t2.299 |
| above $1.699 | 71¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1699-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.699 |
| above $1.799 | 71¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1799-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.799 |
| above $0.999 | 70¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-0999-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t0.999 |
| above $1.099 | 70¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1099-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.099 |
| above $1.199 | 69¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1199-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.199 |
| above $1.499 | 68¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1499-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.499 |
| above $1.299 | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1299-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.299 |
| above $1.599 | 66¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1599-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.599 |
| above $1.399 | 64¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1399-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.399 |
| above $1.899 | 64¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1899-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.899 |
| above $1.999 | 57¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-1999-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t1.999 |
| above $2.999 | 42¢ | +6pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-2999-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t2.999 |
| above $3.199 | 13¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-3199-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t3.199 |
| above $3.999 | 9¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-natural-gas-close-price-be-above-3999-usd-kalshi-kxnatgasmon-26may2917-t3.999 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | above $2.499 | above $2.199 | above $2.399 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 39 | 41 |
| 2026-05-03 | 58 | 63 | 61 |
| 2026-05-06 | 81 | 79 | 79 |
| 2026-05-07 | 83 | 75 | 80 |
| 2026-05-08 | 87 | 78 | 85 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · above $0.999 +80pp 6→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · above $1.299 +79pp 6→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · above $1.199 +78pp 6→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · above $1.999 +69pp 19→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · above $1.099 +65pp 20→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures whether U.S. natural gas futures will close above $2.399 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Markets currently assign a 94% probability to this outcome, reflecting expectations that prices will remain relatively elevated. Natural gas pricing depends on seasonal demand patterns, weather forecasts affecting heating and cooling needs, inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, and global supply dynamics. The main uncertainty hinges on whether storage levels normalize through the spring and early summer, and whether any supply disruptions or unexpected demand spikes occur before the resolution date. The weekly EIA inventory reports and weather forecasts through late April will be the primary drivers of price movement in the weeks leading up to settlement.

### Key factors

- Current natural gas futures prices are trading in a range where $2.399 represents a modest premium to recent trading levels, making the high probability partially reflect near-term momentum
- EIA weekly inventory reports typically drive short-term volatility; unexpectedly low storage levels could support prices above the threshold, while builds could pressure them downward
- Spring weather patterns between now and late April will significantly influence demand; colder-than-normal temperatures would support higher prices, while mild conditions would pressure them lower
- The contract resolves in approximately 4 weeks, limiting the timeframe for major supply shocks, which may explain the elevated probability versus longer-dated contracts
- Natural gas above $3.899 (the highest strike shown) trades at only 3 cents, indicating market consensus that extreme price spikes are unlikely during this window

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/natgasmon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=natgasmon

## License

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