# Will Crystalyne Curley win the 2026 Navajo Nation presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 3 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/navajopres
Updated: 2026-08-10T04:20:48.921Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $214

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystalyne Curley | 33¢ | −11pp | $123 | kalshi | /markets/will-crystalyne-curley-win-the-2026-navajo-nation-kalshi-kxnavajopres-26nov03-ccur |
| Justin Jones | 57¢ | +31pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-jones-win-the-2026-navajo-nation-presi-kalshi-kxnavajopres-26nov03-jjon |
| Donovan Begay | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donovan-begay-win-the-2026-navajo-nation-pres-kalshi-kxnavajopres-26nov03-dbeg |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | 40 |
| 2026-08-03 | 57 |
| 2026-08-09 | 41 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-08 · Justin Jones −35pp 62→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Justin Jones +31pp 27→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Crystalyne Curley −20pp 36→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Crystalyne Curley +18pp 16→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Crystalyne Curley −11pp 34→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Crystalyne Curley's 7% probability reflects market assessment of her chances in the 2026 Navajo Nation presidential election. The current low probability suggests traders view her as a long-shot candidate compared to frontrunners like Buu Nygren (40%) and other contenders. Her odds are driven by factors including candidate name recognition, campaign organization strength, and historical performance in prior electoral cycles. The election itself will serve as the definitive catalyst, resolving all uncertainty about the outcome. Markets may shift as campaigning intensifies, candidates release policy platforms, or polling data emerges showing voter preference changes. The trading volume across candidates remains modest, indicating limited market attention to this race despite its political significance to the Navajo Nation.

### Key factors

- Buu Nygren trades at 40 cents versus Curley at 4 cents, indicating market confidence disparity among the leading candidates
- No public polling data is referenced in current market data, suggesting decisions are based on limited information about voter preferences
- Trading volume is uniformly low across all candidates ($26 24h vol each), indicating low market liquidity and potential price volatility
- The election date and campaign timeline determine when this market resolves and how much time remains for candidate momentum shifts
- Crystalyne Curley's name appears twice in top contracts (her own race plus Andrew Curley's), suggesting potential name-recognition effects or family political networks

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/navajopres
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=navajopres
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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