# NBA Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 2 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-championship
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:09.776Z
Category: sports · Topic: nba
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-29

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2.1M

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 22¢ | −22pp | $1.1M | kalshi | /markets/will-the-san-antonio-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-f-kalshi-kxnba-26-sas |
| New York | 77¢ | +3pp | $957K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-fina-kalshi-kxnba-26-nyk |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 15 |
| 2026-05-25 | 24 |
| 2026-06-01 | 50 |
| 2026-06-07 | 78 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · San Antonio −22pp 46→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · New York +21pp 54→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · San Antonio +20pp 44→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · San Antonio −14pp 64→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · New York +11pp 43→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 15% probability reflects the aggregate market assessment that any single NBA team will win the 2026 championship. The market shows significant concentration around Oklahoma City at 52 cents, indicating strong differentiation between contenders rather than uniform uncertainty. The current pricing is driven by regular-season performance through late April 2026, playoff seeding positioning, and historical roster composition. The NBA Finals in June 2026 will definitively resolve this contract, with the outcome determined by playoff matchups and performance across four rounds of competition. Market movements between now and the Finals will reflect injury reports, playoff performance, and updated win probability as teams advance or are eliminated from contention.

### Key factors

- Oklahoma City priced at 52¢ commands 77% of the aggregated contracts' implied probability, suggesting dominant market consensus on championship favorites among tracked teams
- New York and Denver both priced at 3¢ (lowest in tracked contracts) despite historical championship contention status, indicating market skepticism about 2026 roster construction or season trajectory
- San Antonio's 16¢ relative to Boston's 14¢ shows meaningful disagreement within the market about mid-tier contenders, with 24h volume ($436k vs $215k) suggesting higher conviction on San Antonio
- The concentration of volume in top three contracts ($437k, $436k, $238k) versus remaining two ($215k, $135k) indicates market focus clustering on specific narrative teams
- Remaining ~25% of probability across all other NBA teams not shown in top five contracts suggests either depth of competition or market inefficiency in pricing non-favorites

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-championship
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba-championship
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/nba

## License

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