# NBA Coach of the Year Winner: JB Bickerstaff

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 1 contract — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-coach-of-winner-jb-bickerstaff
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:28.451Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JB Bickerstaff | 5¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/nba-coach-of-the-year-winner-jb-bickerstaff-polymarket-0xc98057e2ead6760fb748cff4a1592e8412b9dab050477c23d16e98fb5a390ea7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 65 |
| 2026-04-25 | 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | 6 |
| 2026-05-09 | 5 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · JB Bickerstaff −4pp 7→3¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that JB Bickerstaff will win the 2026 NBA Coach of the Year award. At 6%, the market views him as a significant underdog compared to Joe Mazzulla, whose contract prices around 94%. The low probability likely reflects either Bickerstaff's team performance relative to preseason expectations or Mazzulla's strong early-season results with the Boston Celtics. The primary driver of this probability will be regular-season performance metrics: win-loss record, team improvement year-over-year, and playoff seeding. The 2025-26 season concludes in April 2026, with the Coach of the Year award announced typically in June. Market participants would reassess this probability based on updated standings, individual team trajectories, and comparative performance of other coaching candidates throughout the season. The final resolution depends on voting by media members and fan participation in the official NBA award process.

### Key factors

- Bickerstaff's team's current win-loss record and playoff position relative to preseason projections
- Year-over-year improvement in wins and team performance compared to the prior season
- Relative performance and win totals of competing coaching candidates, particularly Joe Mazzulla and the Boston Celtics
- Media narrative and voter sentiment as reflected in mid-season and end-of-season coverage
- Whether Bickerstaff's team makes the playoffs and their seed, which historically correlates with Coach of the Year voting

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-coach-of-winner-jb-bickerstaff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba-coach-of-winner-jb-bickerstaff

## License

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