# NBA Coach of the Year Winner

> Joe Mazzulla leads at 94%, runner-up 6% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-coach-of-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.812Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Joe Mazzulla at 94%
- Runner-up: JB Bickerstaff at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mazzulla | 94¢ | +3pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/nba-coach-of-the-year-winner-joe-mazzulla-polymarket-0x24637788a7a6fddad31b6c07da6afdd2d353d7179da4b97280b2947870813292 |
| JB Bickerstaff | 6¢ | +1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/nba-coach-of-the-year-winner-jb-bickerstaff-polymarket-0xc98057e2ead6760fb748cff4a1592e8412b9dab050477c23d16e98fb5a390ea7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Joe Mazzulla | JB Bickerstaff |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 30 | 65 |
| 2026-04-25 | 96 | 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | 94 | 6 |
| 2026-05-07 | 95 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 98 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · JB Bickerstaff −4pp 7→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Joe Mazzulla +3pp 95→98¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 94% probability reflects strong market consensus that Joe Mazzulla will win the 2026 NBA Coach of the Year award. The high probability is primarily driven by the Boston Celtics' regular season performance and playoff success, with JB Bickerstaff of the Cleveland Cavaliers representing the main alternative. The market assigns less than 6% combined probability to all other coaches. The season's final outcomes and voting by NBA media members, coaches, and players will determine the winner, typically announced in June following the playoffs. Contract volume shows significant trading interest, particularly on Kalshi and Polymarket, with Joe Mazzulla's contracts trading at substantially higher prices than Bickerstaff's. The resolution hinges on complete regular season statistics, playoff performance, and the official award voting that occurs after the season concludes.

### Key factors

- Joe Mazzulla's contracts trade at 94¢ compared to JB Bickerstaff's 3-6¢, indicating the market has priced approximately 16:1 odds favoring Mazzulla
- Total contract volume exceeds $136,000 in 24-hour trading, with Mazzulla contracts accounting for approximately 75% of that volume, suggesting concentrated confidence rather than broad consensus
- Bickerstaff's 3-6¢ pricing represents meaningful residual probability, indicating the market acknowledges Cavaliers performance or voter sentiment could shift the outcome
- The 94% probability level leaves 6% for all other coaches combined (approximately 30 total NBA coaches), reflecting extreme concentration on two candidates
- Voting occurs post-season, so regular season performance through season-end and playoff results remain the primary unresolved variables affecting both candidates' cases

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-coach-of-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba-coach-of-winner

## License

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