# NBA Game Predictions

> Closed. Final outcome: San Antonio at Minnesota Winner?: San Antonio. Last odds frozen 9 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-games
Updated: 2026-05-29T13:20:12.831Z
Category: sports · Topic: nba
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-12

## Headline

- Leader: Oklahoma City at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio at 59%
- Runner-up: Oklahoma City at San Antonio Winner?: Oklahoma City at 41%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2.6M
- Resolved: San Antonio at Minnesota Winner?: San Antonio

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio | 59¢ | +2pp | $1.1M | kalshi | /markets/game-6-oklahoma-city-at-san-antonio-winner-san-ant-kalshi-kxnbagame-26may28okcsas-sas |
| Oklahoma City at San Antonio Winner?: Oklahoma City | 41¢ | −1pp | $1.5M | kalshi | /markets/game-6-oklahoma-city-at-san-antonio-winner-oklahom-kalshi-kxnbagame-26may28okcsas-okc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Oklahoma City at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio | Oklahoma City at San Antonio Winner?: Oklahoma City |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 53 | 44 |
| 2026-05-26 | 55 | 44 |
| 2026-05-27 | 57 | 42 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 41 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

These NBA Game 6 matchups represent market expectations for two potential playoff series-deciding contests. The 50% aggregated probability reflects uncertainty around outcomes that depend on team performance, injury status, and recent form. San Antonio appears favored as a 65¢ contract at Minnesota, while Detroit shows as an underdog at 38¢ against Cleveland. The probabilities would shift based on updated injury reports, performance in earlier series games, and betting volume changes as games approach. These contracts will resolve once each Game 6 concludes, with the winner determined by final score.

### Key factors

- San Antonio contract trading at 65¢ indicates market consensus favoring them over Minnesota, with significantly higher 24-hour volume ($523k) on the San Antonio side
- Detroit trading at 38¢ against Cleveland shows clear underdog positioning, with Cleveland holding 61¢ and higher relative trading volume
- The 24-hour volume totals ($617k for Minnesota, $523k for San Antonio, $447k for Detroit, $344k for Cleveland) demonstrate active trader engagement but unequal distribution across contracts
- Resolution dates depend on series progression—these Game 6 contracts only matter if series reach 3-3 before the decisive game
- Injury status of key rotation players and performance trends from earlier series games will create probability shifts before these games are played

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-games
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba-games
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/nba

## License

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