# NBA Rookie of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 10 contracts — refreshed 44 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-rookie-of
Updated: 2026-06-25T18:20:51.195Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-28

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Beck | 3¢ | — | $734 | kalshi | /markets/will-carson-beck-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-cbec |
| Carnell Tate | 13¢ | ±0 | $557 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnell-tate-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-ctat |
| Caleb Downs | 18¢ | +2pp | $330 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-downs-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-cdow |
| Fernando Mendoza | 23¢ | +1pp | $258 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-mendoza-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-fmen |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | 14¢ | +2pp | $237 | kalshi | /markets/will-rueben-bain-jr-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-th-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-rbai |
| Makai Lemon | 7¢ | — | $235 | kalshi | /markets/will-makai-lemon-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-mlem |
| Jordyn Tyson | 13¢ | ±0 | $134 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordyn-tyson-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-jtys |
| Jadarian Price | 9¢ | ±0 | $83 | kalshi | /markets/will-jadarian-price-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-th-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-jpri |
| Arvell Reese | 17¢ | +1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-arvell-reese-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-aree |
| KC Concepcion | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kc-concepcion-win-the-offensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfloroty-27-kcon |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 13 |
| 2026-06-11 | 11 |
| 2026-06-18 | 12 |
| 2026-06-25 | 19 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Arvell Reese +3pp 11→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Arvell Reese +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 13% probability reflects the aggregated betting market's assessment of the likelihood that one of the listed rookies wins the 2025-26 NBA Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The relatively low probability compared to other markets (Polymarket averages 19%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about which player will ultimately lead the statistical categories or win the voting. The outcome depends on rookie performance metrics—points, assists, and shooting efficiency—across the full season through April 2026, combined with narrative momentum and voter preferences. The 9-percentage-point gap between venues indicates disagreement about whether current frontrunners like Fernando Mendoza (22¢) or Jadarian Price (11¢) will sustain their early performance or whether other candidates will emerge. Resolution occurs in late April 2026 when the NBA announces the official award winner.

### Key factors

- Fernando Mendoza trades at 22¢ on Kalshi but the aggregate market is only 13%, indicating potential overvaluation or limited contract liquidity on that venue
- Volume concentration ($1,793 in 24h volume on Jadarian Price) versus minimal activity on lower-priced candidates suggests limited price discovery for mid-tier rookies
- Offensive Rookie of the Year historically correlates with total points and usage rate; candidates must maintain scoring efficiency over an 82-game season rather than showing early promise
- The 9pp cross-venue discrepancy (Polymarket 19% vs Kalshi 10%) reflects different market participant bases and risk appetites rather than resolved information
- Early-season performance can shift dramatically—rookie wall effects, injury probability, and team trading decisions by the deadline (February 2026) create fundamental uncertainty

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-rookie-of
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba-rookie-of

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