# NBA Sixth Man of the Year Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 5 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-sixth-man-of-winner
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:50.100Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Pacquiao | 38¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/floyd-mayweather-jr-vs-manny-pacquiao-winner-manny-kalshi-kxboxing-26sep19fmaympac-mpac |
| Floyd Mayweather Jr. | 60¢ | ±0 | $745 | kalshi | /markets/floyd-mayweather-jr-vs-manny-pacquiao-winner-floyd-kalshi-kxboxing-26sep19fmaympac-fmay |
| At least 14.00M bpd | 10¢ | −2pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-barrels-per-day-will-the-us-produce-t-kalshi-kxbarrels-26-14.00 |
| At least 14.10M bpd | 6¢ | −3pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-barrels-per-day-will-the-us-produce-t-kalshi-kxbarrels-26-14.10 |
| At least 430 | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-rigs-will-the-us-have-at-the-end-of-t-kalshi-kxoilrigs-26-430 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 32 |
| 2026-06-12 | 33 |
| 2026-06-19 | 53 |
| 2026-06-26 | 50 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · At least 14.00M bpd +10pp 5→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · At least 14.10M bpd +5pp 5→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · At least 14.00M bpd −3pp 16→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · At least 14.10M bpd −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 36% probability represents the estimated chance that a specific player wins the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award for the 2025-26 season. The aggregated market pricing reflects uncertainty about which reserve player will have the strongest impact off the bench this season. The award typically goes to a high-usage backup scorer or reliable playmaker whose team performance and individual statistics stand out among candidates. The primary drivers of this probability are the player's playing time consistency, scoring efficiency, and team success—all of which will be finalized when the NBA season concludes. The award will be determined in June 2026 when the NBA announces its award winners, at which point the market will resolve based on the official voting results from media and fan panels.

### Key factors

- Player's average minutes per game and whether bench role remains stable throughout the season
- Total points and efficiency metrics compared to other sixth man candidates over 82 games
- Team's overall win-loss record and playoff seeding, as voters often favor contributors on successful teams
- Voter perception influenced by nationally televised games and player visibility during the season
- Competing candidates' performance levels—the award is relative, so injury or decline among other bench scorers could shift probability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba-sixth-man-of-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba-sixth-man-of-winner

## License

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