# Denver vs Minnesota

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 13 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba1hwinner
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:05:50.331Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $246K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half Winner?: Orlando wins 1st half | 33¢ | +4pp | $128K | kalshi | /markets/orlando-vs-detroit-first-half-winner-orlando-wins-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may03orldet-orl |
| First Half Winner?: Detroit wins 1st half | 59¢ | ±0 | $69K | kalshi | /markets/orlando-vs-detroit-first-half-winner-detroit-wins-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may03orldet-det |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 6¢ | — | $42K | kalshi | /markets/orlando-vs-detroit-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may03orldet-tie |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 3¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/toronto-vs-cleveland-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may03torcle-tie |
| First Half Winner?: Toronto wins 1st half | 30¢ | +5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/toronto-vs-cleveland-first-half-winner-toronto-win-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may03torcle-tor |
| First Half Winner?: Cleveland wins 1st half | 65¢ | +1pp | $647 | kalshi | /markets/toronto-vs-cleveland-first-half-winner-cleveland-w-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may03torcle-cle |
| First Half Winner?: Los Angeles L wins 1st half | 14¢ | — | $644 | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-l-vs-oklahoma-city-first-half-winner-l-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may05lalokc-lal |
| First Half Winner?: San Antonio wins 1st half | 74¢ | −7pp | $258 | kalshi | /markets/minnesota-vs-san-antonio-first-half-winner-san-ant-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may04minsas-sas |
| First Half Winner?: Philadelphia wins 1st half | 31¢ | — | $159 | kalshi | /markets/philadelphia-vs-new-york-first-half-winner-philade-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may04phinyk-phi |
| First Half Winner?: New York wins 1st half | 60¢ | — | $92 | kalshi | /markets/philadelphia-vs-new-york-first-half-winner-new-yor-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may04phinyk-nyk |
| First Half Winner?: Minnesota wins 1st half | 18¢ | +1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/minnesota-vs-san-antonio-first-half-winner-minneso-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may04minsas-min |
| First Half Winner?: Oklahoma City wins 1st half | 79¢ | — | $21 | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-l-vs-oklahoma-city-first-half-winner-o-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may05lalokc-okc |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/minnesota-vs-san-antonio-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnba1hwinner-26may04minsas-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · First Half Winner?: San Antonio wins 1st half −7pp 71→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · First Half Winner?: Toronto wins 1st half +5pp 23→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · First Half Winner?: Orlando wins 1st half +4pp 24→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · First Half Winner?: San Antonio wins 1st half −4pp 75→71¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba1hwinner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba1hwinner

## License

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