# Will Kawhi Leonard be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 1st Team

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 3 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba1stteam
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:21:00.625Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 81¢ | +4pp | $681 | kalshi | /markets/will-cade-cunningham-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-al-kalshi-kxnba1stteam-26-ccun |
| Jaylen Brown | 14¢ | −3pp | $385 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaylen-brown-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-p-kalshi-kxnba1stteam-26-jbro |
| Jalen Brunson | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-brunson-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-kalshi-kxnba1stteam-26-jbru |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 40 |
| 2026-04-19 | 50 |
| 2026-04-26 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 47 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Cade Cunningham −24pp 69→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Cade Cunningham +14pp 45→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Cade Cunningham +11pp 59→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Cade Cunningham +10pp 55→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Cade Cunningham −8pp 70→62¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Kawhi Leonard will earn first-team All-Pro honors for the 2025-26 season. At 46%, the market suggests roughly even odds, indicating meaningful uncertainty about whether he'll rank among the top two at his position. His selection depends primarily on his health status and playing time—Kawhi has dealt with ongoing availability concerns that could limit his statistical accumulation relative to competitors. The All-Pro voting typically concludes in early 2026 based on regular-season performance, so the key driver will be actual games played and statistical production through the season. Related markets show other guards like Cade Cunningham (70¢) are viewed as more likely first-team candidates, while Jaylen Brown (26¢) faces longer odds, suggesting positional competition and health narratives differ across players.

### Key factors

- Kawhi's games played in 2025-26 regular season—historical hamstring and knee issues could limit availability
- Per-game scoring and efficiency compared to other guards competing for first-team spots
- Team winning record and playoff seeding—All-Pro voters weight both individual performance and team success
- Media narrative and voter perception of 'peak performance' vs. durability, which has historically affected his All-Pro selections
- Timing of All-Pro voting in February 2026, which depends on complete regular-season statistics and voter consensus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba1stteam
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba1stteam

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.