# Will OG Anunoby be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 1st Team

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 13 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba1stteamdef
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:51.748Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $141

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 8¢ | +2pp | $115 | kalshi | /markets/will-bam-adebayo-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-ba-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-bade |
| Derrick White | 22¢ | −7pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-derrick-white-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-dwhi |
| OG Anunoby | 4¢ | −7pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-og-anunoby-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-bas-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-oanu |
| Amen Thompson | 13¢ | −6pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-amen-thompson-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-amtho |
| Rudy Gobert | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rudy-gobert-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-ba-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-rgob |
| Scottie Barnes | 61¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-barnes-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-sbar |
| Ausar Thompson | 96¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ausar-thompson-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-autho |
| Luguentz Dort | 10¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luguentz-dort-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-ldor |
| Dyson Daniels | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dyson-daniels-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-ddan |
| Draymond Green | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-draymond-green-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-dgre |
| Ivica Zubac | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ivica-zubac-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-ba-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-izub |
| Kawhi Leonard | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kawhi-leonard-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-kleo |
| Donovan Clingan | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donovan-clingan-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pr-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-dcli |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 49 |
| 2026-04-19 | 27 |
| 2026-04-26 | 67 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Scottie Barnes +29pp 40→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Derrick White −22pp 35→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Derrick White +20pp 21→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Scottie Barnes −18pp 71→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Scottie Barnes +18pp 53→71¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 28% chance that OG Anunoby will earn All-Pro 1st Team Defensive honors for the 2025-26 NBA season. Anunoby's selection probability hinges on two primary factors: his actual defensive performance during the season and the competitive field of elite wing defenders vying for limited spots. The All-Pro voting typically occurs in early April after the regular season concludes, meaning the market is pricing in uncertainty about both Anunoby's consistency over a full season and how voters will compare him to peers like Ausar Thompson (who trades at 96¢) and other top candidates. The resolution will depend entirely on voting results announced following the 2025-26 regular season. Currently, markets suggest Anunoby faces meaningful competition for this honor, with his probability notably lower than emerging candidates like Thompson but higher than some established perimeter defenders.

### Key factors

- Anunoby's defensive rating and steal/block statistics relative to other wing defenders throughout the 2025-26 season
- The health and availability of competing defensive candidates, particularly younger wings like Ausar Thompson trading much higher in markets
- Voter preferences in All-Pro balloting, which can favor players on high-seed teams or those with elevated public profile
- Anunoby's overall role and minutes for his team—reserve or reduced roles typically decrease All-Pro chances regardless of efficiency
- The final voting results announced by the league, which will definitively resolve this contract based on whether he receives sufficient votes for 1st Team Defensive honors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba1stteamdef
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba1stteamdef

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