# Will Houston win the 2H by over 13.5 points

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 17 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba2hspread
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:50.347Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-02-13

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $136K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 3¢ | — | $43K | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-2027-pro-football-championshi-kalshi-kxsb-27-hou |
| Steve Hilton | 10¢ | +1pp | $42K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-steve-kalshi-kxgovca-26-shil |
| Chad Bianco | 4¢ | ±0 | $19K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-chad-b-kalshi-kxgovca-26-cbia |
| Democratic party | 39¢ | +1pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-kxgovpartyak-26-d |
| Matt Mahan | 6¢ | +2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-matt-m-kalshi-kxgovca-26-mmah |
| Tom Steyer | 40¢ | −2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-tom-st-kalshi-kxgovca-26-tste |
| Xavier Becerra | 37¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-xavier-kalshi-kxgovca-26-xbec |
| Republican party | 10¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartyca-26-r |
| Houston | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-le-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-hou |
| Katie Porter | 4¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-katie-kalshi-kxgovca-26-kpor |
| Houston | 8¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-be-the-2026-al-west-division-winner-h-kalshi-kxmlbalwest-26-hou |
| Houston | 4¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-college-basketball-national-c-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-hou |
| Democratic party | 73¢ | ±0 | $983 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartyaz-26-d |
| Republican party | 22¢ | ±0 | $852 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartyaz-26-r |
| Republican party | 37¢ | +1pp | $648 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartyga-26-r |
| Democratic party | 61¢ | +3pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartyga-26-d |
| Democratic party | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartyfl-26-d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 26 |
| 2026-04-26 | 23 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Democratic party −6pp 63→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Xavier Becerra +4pp 29→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Xavier Becerra +4pp 33→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Republican party +4pp 36→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Republican party −4pp 40→36¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba2hspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba2hspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.