# Nikola Vučević: 1+ threes

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba3pt
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.471Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-23

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ threes: Chet Holmgren: 2+ | 41¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/chet-holmgren-2-threes-chet-holmgren-2-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09okclal-okccholmgren7-2 |
| 4+ threes: Cade Cunningham: 4+ | 18¢ | — | $345 | kalshi | /markets/cade-cunningham-4-threes-cade-cunningham-4-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-detccunningham2-4 |
| 3+ threes: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+ | 17¢ | — | $336 | kalshi | /markets/shai-gilgeous-alexander-3-threes-shai-gilgeous-ale-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09okclal-okcsgilgeousalexander2-3 |
| 4+ threes: Austin Reaves: 4+ | 18¢ | — | $300 | kalshi | /markets/austin-reaves-4-threes-austin-reaves-4-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09okclal-lalareaves15-4 |
| 3+ threes: LeBron James: 3+ | 20¢ | — | $225 | kalshi | /markets/lebron-james-3-threes-lebron-james-3-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09okclal-lalljames23-3 |
| 2+ threes: Jaylon Tyson: 2+ | 27¢ | — | $219 | kalshi | /markets/jaylon-tyson-2-threes-jaylon-tyson-2-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-clejtyson20-2 |
| 2+ threes: LeBron James: 2+ | 46¢ | — | $218 | kalshi | /markets/lebron-james-2-threes-lebron-james-2-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09okclal-lalljames23-2 |
| 3+ threes: Donovan Mitchell: 3+ | 55¢ | — | $74 | kalshi | /markets/donovan-mitchell-3-threes-donovan-mitchell-3-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-cledmitchell45-3 |
| 3+ threes: Austin Reaves: 3+ | 37¢ | — | $65 | kalshi | /markets/austin-reaves-3-threes-austin-reaves-3-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09okclal-lalareaves15-3 |
| 3+ threes: Duncan Robinson: 3+ | 53¢ | — | $59 | kalshi | /markets/duncan-robinson-3-threes-duncan-robinson-3-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-detdrobinson55-3 |
| 5+ threes: Donovan Mitchell: 5+ | 16¢ | — | $50 | kalshi | /markets/donovan-mitchell-5-threes-donovan-mitchell-5-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-cledmitchell45-5 |
| 3+ threes: Cade Cunningham: 3+ | 39¢ | — | $48 | kalshi | /markets/cade-cunningham-3-threes-cade-cunningham-3-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-detccunningham2-3 |
| 2+ threes: Tobias Harris: 2+ | 44¢ | — | $34 | kalshi | /markets/tobias-harris-2-threes-tobias-harris-2-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-dettharris12-2 |
| 4+ threes: Chet Holmgren: 4+ | 8¢ | — | $29 | kalshi | /markets/chet-holmgren-4-threes-chet-holmgren-4-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09okclal-okccholmgren7-4 |
| 5+ threes: Cade Cunningham: 5+ | 8¢ | — | $28 | kalshi | /markets/cade-cunningham-5-threes-cade-cunningham-5-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-detccunningham2-5 |
| 3+ threes: Chet Holmgren: 3+ | 17¢ | — | $23 | kalshi | /markets/chet-holmgren-3-threes-chet-holmgren-3-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09okclal-okccholmgren7-3 |
| 2+ threes: James Harden: 2+ | 68¢ | — | $23 | kalshi | /markets/james-harden-2-threes-james-harden-2-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-clejharden1-2 |
| 3+ threes: James Harden: 3+ | 43¢ | — | $11 | kalshi | /markets/james-harden-3-threes-james-harden-3-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-clejharden1-3 |
| 4+ threes: Duncan Robinson: 4+ | 32¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/duncan-robinson-4-threes-duncan-robinson-4-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-detdrobinson55-4 |
| 3+ threes: Tobias Harris: 3+ | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tobias-harris-3-threes-tobias-harris-3-kalshi-kxnba3pt-26may09detcle-dettharris12-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 35 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract resolves to yes if Nikola Vučević makes at least one three-pointer in a specified game, with the market currently pricing this outcome at 40%. Vučević's three-point volume and accuracy depend on his role in his team's offensive system, his playing time that night, and defensive adjustments from opponents. Players at his position who see heavy usage sometimes shift toward perimeter shooting as spacing needs evolve, while aging or injury considerations can affect both opportunity and performance. The resolution hinges on the actual game performance on the scheduled date, where factors like opponent defense, Vučević's health status, and his specific role in the team's gameplan directly determine the outcome. Recent form and shooting efficiency trends provide context, but individual game variance remains substantial for shot-making probabilities.

### Key factors

- Vučević's season three-point attempt rate and whether it has trended higher or lower in recent games
- His field goal and three-point shooting percentages year-to-date compared to his career norms
- Expected playing time and role in that specific game based on team rotation patterns and injury status
- Defensive matchup characteristics of the opposing team, particularly how they defend centers on the perimeter
- Whether the game context (pace, score differential expectations) typically correlates with higher or lower three-point volume

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba3pt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba3pt

## License

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