# Will Chet Holmgren be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 14 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba3rdteam
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:21:00.585Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $383

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 31¢ | −11pp | $298 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyrese-maxey-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-p-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-tmax |
| Jalen Brunson | 27¢ | −1pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-brunson-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-jbru |
| Jalen Duren | 74¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-duren-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-pr-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-jdur |
| Jalen Johnson | 61¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-johnson-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-jjoh |
| Jaylen Brown | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaylen-brown-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-p-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-jbro |
| Cade Cunningham | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cade-cunningham-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-al-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-ccun |
| Luka Doncic | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luka-doncic-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-pr-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-ldon |
| Donovan Mitchell | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donovan-mitchell-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-a-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-dmit |
| Jamal Murray | 55¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamal-murray-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-p-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-jmur |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-karl-anthony-towns-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-ktow |
| Scottie Barnes | 25¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-barnes-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-sbar |
| Kevin Durant | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kevin-durant-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-p-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-kdur |
| Stephon Castle | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stephon-castle-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-scas |
| Devin Booker | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-devin-booker-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-p-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-dboo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 22 |
| 2026-04-19 | 38 |
| 2026-04-26 | 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Tyrese Maxey −26pp 60→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Stephon Castle −15pp 16→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tyrese Maxey −11pp 34→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Karl-Anthony Towns −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 26% likelihood that Chet Holmgren receives All-Pro honors at the third-team level for the 2025-26 NBA season. Holmgren's selection chances depend primarily on his defensive impact, availability, and statistical output over the full season relative to other frontcourt competitors. The All-Pro voting typically occurs in late April 2026, with results announced shortly after, making the remainder of the regular season and his health status critical variables. Current positioning suggests moderate uncertainty about whether he ranks among the top defensive forwards and centers—higher than fringe candidates but below consensus selections like Ausar Thompson (96¢) in related defensive markets.

### Key factors

- Holmgren's games played and injury history through end of regular season (April 2026)
- His defensive box-score metrics (steals, blocks, defensive rebounds) relative to other frontcourt candidates
- All-Pro voter preferences for positional allocation and whether third team recognizes dual-position eligibility
- Comparison to other likely third-team candidates at forward/center positions
- Team playoff seeding and performance, which historically influences All-Pro consideration

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nba3rdteam
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nba3rdteam

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.