# Will Utah be the Emirates 2026 Pro Basketball Cup champion in the 2026-27 season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 9 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbacup
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:45.532Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-14

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $140

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 5¢ | +1pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-be-the-emirates-2026-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxnbacup-26-min |
| Philadelphia | 7¢ | −1pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-be-the-emirates-2026-pro-basketb-kalshi-kxnbacup-26-phi |
| Boston | 11¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-be-the-emirates-2026-pro-basketball-cu-kalshi-kxnbacup-26-bos |
| Charlotte | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-charlotte-be-the-emirates-2026-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxnbacup-26-cha |
| Miami | 3¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-be-the-emirates-2026-pro-basketball-cup-kalshi-kxnbacup-26-mia |
| Oklahoma City | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-be-the-emirates-2026-pro-basket-kalshi-kxnbacup-26-okc |
| San Antonio | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-be-the-emirates-2026-pro-basketba-kalshi-kxnbacup-26-sas |
| Utah | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-be-the-emirates-2026-pro-basketball-cup-kalshi-kxnbacup-26-uta |
| Washington | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-be-the-emirates-2026-pro-basketbal-kalshi-kxnbacup-26-was |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | 9 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-25 · San Antonio +11pp 9→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 37% chance that Utah will win the Emirates 2026 Pro Basketball Cup in the 2026-27 season. The probability reflects Utah's current roster composition, recent performance trajectory, and competitive positioning within the league relative to other title contenders. The market shows significant uncertainty, with Los Angeles priced at 95 cents suggesting it is the clear favorite, while Utah and Charlotte are treated as mid-tier contenders. Utah's chances would move upward with successful offseason acquisitions, strong preseason performance, or injury-free preparation for the season. Conversely, roster turnover, injuries during the off-season, or competitive gains by rival teams would lower expectations. The primary resolution point occurs when the 2026-27 season concludes with the championship determination, currently scheduled approximately one year away.

### Key factors

- Utah's current roster depth and star player availability compared to competitors
- Team's year-over-year performance trend and playoff success in recent seasons
- Los Angeles priced at 95 cents indicates strong market consensus for an alternative favorite
- Offseason roster moves, trades, and free-agent signings that occur before season start
- Injury status and health of Utah's key contributors heading into 2026-27 season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbacup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbacup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.