# Will Bam Adebayo win Defensive Player of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 8 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadpoy
Updated: 2026-09-25T10:20:51.417Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 65¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-victor-wembanyama-win-defensive-player-of-the-kalshi-kxnbadpoy-27-vwembanyama1 |
| Ausar Thompson | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ausar-thompson-win-defensive-player-of-the-ye-kalshi-kxnbadpoy-27-athompson9 |
| Amen Thompson | 29¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amen-thompson-win-defensive-player-of-the-yea-kalshi-kxnbadpoy-27-athompson1 |
| Bam Adebayo | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bam-adebayo-win-defensive-player-of-the-year-kalshi-kxnbadpoy-27-badebayo13 |
| Cooper Flagg | 33¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cooper-flagg-win-defensive-player-of-the-year-kalshi-kxnbadpoy-27-cflagg32 |
| Chet Holmgren | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chet-holmgren-win-defensive-player-of-the-yea-kalshi-kxnbadpoy-27-cholmgren7 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaren-jackson-jr-win-defensive-player-of-the-kalshi-kxnbadpoy-27-jjackson20 |
| Rudy Gobert | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rudy-gobert-win-defensive-player-of-the-year-kalshi-kxnbadpoy-27-rgobert27 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 31 |
| 2026-09-11 | 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | 26 |
| 2026-09-24 | 27 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-23 · Ausar Thompson +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 22% probability indicates roughly 1-in-5 odds that Bam Adebayo wins the 2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award. The estimate reflects that while Adebayo is considered a strong defensive presence for the Miami Heat, he faces significant competition from other elite defenders. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Adebayo's consistent defensive performance and availability relative to peers, and the strength of the defensive field—notably Victor Wembanyama and OG Anunoby, both priced at 32¢, suggest voters may have alternative top-tier options. Team success matters substantially for DPOY voting, so Heat playoff performance and whether Miami contends for titles would materially shift expectations. The award will be decided in June 2027 following the regular season, when voting patterns become clear based on actual defensive metrics and team performance throughout the season.

### Key factors

- Adebayo's individual defensive metrics (blocks, steals, defensive rebounds, rim protection) relative to Wembanyama, Anunoby, and other contenders
- Miami Heat's regular-season record and playoff seeding, as DPOY voters typically favor players on winning teams
- Injury status and games played for Adebayo and competing defenders, since durability affects award consideration
- Changes in NBA defensive evaluation criteria or voting patterns that might favor guards/wings over centers
- Wembanyama's continued development curve, given he is tied with Adebayo at 32¢ despite being younger and a rising star

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadpoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbadpoy

## License

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