# Will there be exactly the same amount of ACC and Big 12 players selected in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadraftcomp
Updated: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-10

## Headline

- Leader: Big 12 at 94%
- Runner-up: ACC at 5%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big 12 | 94¢ | −28pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-big-12-players-selected-in-the-kalshi-kxnbadraftcomp-26accbig12-b12 |
| ACC | 5¢ | +4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-acc-players-selected-in-the-1st-kalshi-kxnbadraftcomp-26accbig12-acc |
| Tie | 5¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-exactly-the-same-amount-of-acc-and-b-kalshi-kxnbadraftcomp-26accbig12-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Big 12 | ACC | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | — | 3 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 85 | — | — |
| 2026-06-14 | — | 2 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 86 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 3 | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 89 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 91 | 3 | 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | 63 | 7 | 6 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Big 12 −28pp 91→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · ACC +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Big 12 +3pp 86→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Big 12 +3pp 88→91¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates whether the 2026 NBA Draft's first round will feature an equal number of players from the ACC and Big 12 conferences. The market currently prices an exact tie at 4 cents, indicating traders view such parity as highly unlikely. The distribution of elite talent between these conferences—measured by projected draft position and player development—shapes expectations. The Big 12 is favored at 89 cents, suggesting market participants expect more Big 12 first-round selections than ACC picks. Resolution occurs when the NBA completes the 2026 Draft's first round, definitively counting selections by conference affiliation. Changes to this probability would reflect updated player evaluations, injury developments, or shifts in which underclassmen declare for the draft versus return to school.

### Key factors

- Current roster composition and projected draft stock of ACC and Big 12 players eligible for 2026, including who has declared versus remaining eligible
- Historical conference representation ratios in first rounds—whether ACC or Big 12 typically produces more lottery and early-round talent
- Transfer portal activity between now and draft declarations that could shift player affiliations between conferences
- Injury status or performance changes of borderline first-round prospects within each conference
- Draft date and official declaration deadline—when eligibility rules lock in the final pool of participants

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadraftcomp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbadraftcomp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.