# Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft

> Closed. Last odds frozen 60 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadraftpick
Updated: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $746K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler | 73¢ | — | $94K | kalshi | /markets/will-keaton-wagler-be-picked-5th-in-the-pro-basket-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-5-kwag |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 22¢ | — | $78K | kalshi | /markets/will-darius-acuff-jr-be-picked-5th-in-the-pro-bask-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-5-dacu |
| Brayden Burries | 84¢ | — | $73K | kalshi | /markets/will-brayden-burries-be-picked-9th-in-the-pro-bask-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-9-bbur |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 26¢ | — | $71K | kalshi | /markets/will-darius-acuff-jr-be-picked-6th-in-the-pro-bask-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-6-dacu |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 57¢ | — | $57K | kalshi | /markets/will-darius-acuff-jr-be-picked-7th-in-the-pro-bask-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-7-dacu |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 5¢ | — | $54K | kalshi | /markets/will-mikel-brown-jr-be-picked-5th-in-the-pro-baske-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-5-mbro |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 61¢ | — | $51K | kalshi | /markets/will-mikel-brown-jr-be-picked-6th-in-the-pro-baske-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-6-mbro |
| Nate Ament | 4¢ | — | $50K | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-ament-be-picked-9th-in-the-pro-basketbal-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-9-name |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 7¢ | — | $44K | kalshi | /markets/will-yaxel-lendeborg-be-picked-9th-in-the-pro-bask-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-9-ylen |
| Aday Mara | 3¢ | — | $39K | kalshi | /markets/will-aday-mara-be-picked-9th-in-the-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-9-amar |
| Nate Ament | 73¢ | — | $38K | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-ament-be-picked-10th-in-the-pro-basketba-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-10-name |
| Kingston Flemings | 46¢ | — | $38K | kalshi | /markets/will-kingston-flemings-be-picked-8th-in-the-pro-ba-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-8-kfle |
| Nate Ament | 3¢ | — | $33K | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-ament-be-picked-6th-in-the-pro-basketbal-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-6-name |
| Aday Mara | 27¢ | — | $26K | kalshi | /markets/will-aday-mara-be-picked-8th-in-the-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxnbadraftpick-26-8-amar |

## Analysis

The current 49% probability indicates that a specific player is favored to be selected third in the 2026 NBA Draft, though this represents plurality support rather than a consensus. The leading candidate faces meaningful competition from a runner-up at 38%, suggesting the third pick remains genuinely uncertain. Factors driving this probability include pre-draft evaluations by NBA scouts, team needs and draft position, player performance metrics from the 2025-26 season, and reported draft board rankings from league insiders. The probability will likely shift as the NBA Draft approaches on its scheduled date, when official team intentions and final mock drafts become clearer. Volatility may spike closer to the event as new workouts, interviews, and injury reports emerge.

### Key factors

- The leading outcome has 49% implied probability versus 38% for the runner-up, indicating material uncertainty rather than a clear favorite
- Pre-draft evaluation reports and mock drafts from established NBA analysts directly influence positioning of potential third-pick candidates
- The team holding the third pick's publicly stated needs and historical draft patterns affect which players are considered most likely at that position
- Recent performance metrics and injury status of top prospects would shift probabilities if significant new information emerges
- Official announcement of the third pick occurs at the NBA Draft event itself, making this a binary resolution rather than a gradual outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadraftpick
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbadraftpick

## License

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