# Will Caleb Wilson be drafted by Chicago

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 10 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadraftteam
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.531Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-02

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 51¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-boozer-be-drafted-by-memphis-memphis-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26cboo-mem |
| Chicago | 13¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-boozer-be-drafted-by-chicago-chicago-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26cboo-chi |
| Utah | 24¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-aj-dybantsa-be-drafted-by-utah-utah-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26adyb-uta |
| Washington | 74¢ | +7pp | $285 | kalshi | /markets/will-aj-dybantsa-be-drafted-by-washington-washingt-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26adyb-wsh |
| Atlanta | 17¢ | +1pp | $279 | kalshi | /markets/will-aday-mara-be-drafted-by-atlanta-atlanta-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26amar-atl |
| Sacramento | 27¢ | ±0 | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-darius-acuff-be-drafted-by-sacramento-sacrame-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26dacu-sac |
| Los Angeles C | 5¢ | −1pp | $77 | kalshi | /markets/will-aday-mara-be-drafted-by-los-angeles-c-los-ang-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26amar-lac |
| Los Angeles C | 36¢ | ±0 | $52 | kalshi | /markets/will-keaton-wagler-be-drafted-by-los-angeles-c-los-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26kwag-lac |
| Utah | 54¢ | ±0 | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-darryn-peterson-be-drafted-by-utah-utah-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26dpet-uta |
| Memphis | 24¢ | −2pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-wilson-be-drafted-by-memphis-memphis-kalshi-kxnbadraftteam-26cwil-mem |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 22 |
| 2026-05-14 | 34 |
| 2026-05-21 | 36 |
| 2026-05-28 | 25 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Atlanta +16pp 13→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Atlanta −13pp 29→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Utah −13pp 50→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Utah +12pp 37→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Sacramento −9pp 25→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 18% probability reflects the current likelihood that Caleb Wilson will be selected by the Chicago Bears in the 2026 NFL Draft. Wilson's draft position depends on several factors: the Bears' specific needs at his position, how other tight end prospects perform pre-draft, and where Chicago chooses to allocate its picks. The draft class composition and team priorities will shift as the draft approaches and more information about prospect evaluations surfaces. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the 2026 NFL Draft itself, currently scheduled for April 2026. Until then, changes in mock drafts, team workout reports, and injury updates could move this probability meaningfully. The relatively low current probability suggests markets view other landing spots as more likely for Wilson, though Chicago remains a plausible destination given their offensive needs.

### Key factors

- Chicago's current roster composition and stated offensive priorities heading into draft season
- Wilson's placement in major mock drafts and professional scouting consensus relative to the Bears' draft position
- Injury reports, pro day performance, or other pre-draft evaluation changes affecting Wilson's perceived value
- Whether Chicago addresses tight end in free agency or through earlier draft picks before potentially selecting Wilson
- The overall tight end prospect class depth and how many other options are available to teams with earlier picks

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadraftteam
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbadraftteam

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.