# Pro basketball top 10 draft picks in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 18 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadrafttop
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:14.610Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $535

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 5¢ | +1pp | $157 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-3-draft-picks-in-2026-darius-ac-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-3-dacu |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 47¢ | ±0 | $119 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-5-draft-picks-in-2026-darius-ac-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-5-dacu |
| Brayden Burries | 67¢ | +2pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-brayden-burries-be-a-top-10-draft-pick-in-202-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-10-bbur |
| Cameron Boozer | 93¢ | +1pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-5-draft-picks-in-2026-cameron-b-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-5-cboo |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 33¢ | −1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-10-draft-picks-in-2026-yaxel-le-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-10-ylen |
| Cameron Boozer | 75¢ | −3pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-3-draft-picks-in-2026-cameron-b-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-3-cboo |
| Keaton Wagler | 28¢ | +2pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-keaton-wagler-be-a-top-5-draft-pick-in-2026-k-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-5-kwag |
| Jayden Quaintance | 25¢ | — | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-jayden-quaintance-be-a-top-15-draft-pick-in-2-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-15-jqua |
| Bennett Stirtz | 17¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-bennett-stirtz-be-a-top-15-draft-pick-in-2026-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-15-bsti |
| AJ Dybantsa | 94¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-3-draft-picks-in-2026-aj-dybant-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-3-adyb |
| Jayden Quaintance | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-10-draft-picks-in-2026-jayden-q-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-10-jqua |
| Brayden Burries | 78¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brayden-burries-be-a-1st-round-draft-pick-in-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-r1-bbur |
| Darryn Peterson | 91¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-5-draft-picks-in-2026-darryn-pe-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-5-dpet |
| AJ Dybantsa | 95¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-5-draft-picks-in-2026-aj-dybant-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-5-adyb |
| Caleb Wilson | 89¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-5-draft-picks-in-2026-caleb-wil-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-5-cwil |
| Kingston Flemings | 25¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-5-draft-picks-in-2026-kingston-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-5-kfle |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-5-draft-picks-in-2026-mikel-bro-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-5-mbro |
| Nate Ament | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-top-5-draft-picks-in-2026-nate-amen-kalshi-kxnbadrafttop-26-5-name |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 55 |
| 2026-04-19 | 85 |
| 2026-04-26 | 51 |
| 2026-05-03 | 7 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Yaxel Lendeborg +8pp 22→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Darius Acuff Jr. −5pp 9→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Darius Acuff Jr. −3pp 12→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Darius Acuff Jr. −3pp 49→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Cameron Boozer −3pp 78→75¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates that Cameron Boozer has an estimated 97% chance of being selected in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft. The high probability reflects consensus among traders that Boozer is a lock for an early selection based on current evaluations of draft prospects. Factors supporting this level include Boozer's measured skills and athletic profile relative to the draft class, combined with limited downside scenarios where he would fall outside the top 10. Movements in this probability would primarily depend on: pre-draft workouts and measurables that could strengthen or weaken his evaluation, injuries or character concerns that emerge, or significant improvements by competing prospects that could push him lower. The draft itself in June 2026 will definitively resolve this outcome. Until then, shifts in scout consensus or notable performances in remaining evaluation windows could adjust market expectations.

### Key factors

- Current Boozer top-5 pricing at 93¢ suggests very high confidence in an early selection
- Caleb Wilson (30¢ for top 3) and Darius Acuff Jr. (5¢ for top 3) represent potential competition for premium draft slots
- Pre-draft workouts, combine performance, and injury reports through draft day represent primary information catalysts
- Limited trading volume on Boozer top-10 contract ($71 24h volume) indicates potential for larger moves if significant news emerges
- June 2026 NBA Draft date provides fixed resolution point; no interim events appear to offer substantial new evaluation data

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbadrafttop
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbadrafttop

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.