# Will Oklahoma City record more bench points than San Antonio

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 2 contracts — refreshed 3 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbah2hbenchpts
Updated: 2026-05-28T17:20:08.693Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-12

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City records more bench points than San Antonio | 67¢ | +7pp | $937 | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-record-more-bench-points-than-s-kalshi-kxnbah2hbenchpts-26may28sasokc-okc |
| San Antonio records more bench points than Oklahoma City | 19¢ | −4pp | $475 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-record-more-bench-points-than-okl-kalshi-kxnbah2hbenchpts-26may28sasokc-sas |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 10 |
| 2026-05-26 | 46 |
| 2026-05-27 | 45 |
| 2026-05-28 | 47 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · Oklahoma City records more bench points than San Antonio +46pp 10→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · San Antonio records more bench points than Oklahoma City +25pp 10→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Oklahoma City records more bench points than San Antonio +7pp 58→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · San Antonio records more bench points than Oklahoma City −4pp 32→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · San Antonio records more bench points than Oklahoma City −3pp 35→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether Oklahoma City's bench players will outscore San Antonio's bench players in their next matchup. The 51% odds indicate a near-even split between the two teams' bench scoring potential. Bench scoring efficiency depends on roster composition, player health, and how much each team relies on reserves due to injury or load management. The Thunder have generally prioritized depth and rotation flexibility, while the Spurs operate under different personnel constraints. The resolution will depend on actual game statistics from their next scheduled contest, making recent bench performance data and current injury reports primary drivers of market prices. Trading volume concentrates around the 61-63¢ price point, suggesting moderate confidence in Oklahoma City's advantage but meaningful uncertainty about the outcome.

### Key factors

- Oklahoma City bench scoring average over their last 10 games vs. San Antonio's bench scoring average over the same period
- Current roster availability and injuries affecting both teams' depth rotation options
- Percentage of total points each team typically sources from bench players (bench scoring rate)
- Head-to-head bench scoring history if teams have recently played
- Scheduled game date and whether back-to-backs or rest patterns affect bench playing time allocation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbah2hbenchpts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbah2hbenchpts

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