# Will Miami be awarded with a top 5 pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 19 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbalottery
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:55.314Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-25

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $777

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 8¢ | — | $161 | kalshi | /markets/will-charlotte-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-cha |
| Washington | 35¢ | — | $120 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-be-awarded-with-a-top-3-pick-in-th-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t3-was |
| Golden State | 5¢ | +1pp | $115 | kalshi | /markets/will-golden-state-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-gsw |
| Indiana | 47¢ | −1pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-ind |
| Miami | 10¢ | — | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-202-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-mia |
| Atlanta | 35¢ | — | $86 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-atl |
| Chicago | 16¢ | — | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-chi |
| Dallas | 24¢ | — | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-dal |
| Brooklyn | 35¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooklyn-be-awarded-with-a-top-3-pick-in-the-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t3-bkn |
| Atlanta | 26¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-be-awarded-with-a-top-3-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t3-atl |
| Golden State | 3¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-golden-state-be-awarded-with-a-top-3-pick-in-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t3-gsw |
| Brooklyn | 62¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooklyn-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-bkn |
| Washington | 95¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-th-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-was |
| Utah | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-uta |
| Sacramento | 42¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sacramento-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-th-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-sac |
| Memphis | 32¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-memphis-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-mem |
| Milwaukee | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-mil |
| Los Angeles C | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-c-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-lac |
| Utah | 29¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-be-awarded-with-a-top-3-pick-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t3-uta |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

A 32% probability indicates Miami has roughly a one-in-three chance of receiving a top-5 draft pick in the 2026 NBA Lottery, which takes place after the regular season concludes in April 2026. This probability reflects Miami's current standing among teams with lottery odds—teams that either missed the playoffs or finished with poor records. The probability level is driven primarily by Miami's actual win-loss record and corresponding lottery odds, set by the NBA based on regular-season performance. The lottery drawing itself, scheduled for late May 2026, is the decisive event that will resolve this outcome. Market participants are pricing in Miami's baseline odds while accounting for any trades, injuries, or roster changes that could affect final standings. Compared to other tracked teams, Miami's 32% probability places it in the middle tier of lottery contenders, above Golden State and Charlotte but below Indiana.

### Key factors

- Miami's final 2025-26 regular season record directly determines their lottery odds; each additional win reduces their probability of top-5 placement
- The NBA Lottery drawing on May 22, 2026 is the sole determining event; no other outcomes factor into resolution
- Miami's current inventory of draft assets and any mid-season trades could theoretically alter playoff position, affecting lottery qualification
- Comparative odds across tracked teams show Indiana (47%) and Sacramento (29%) as more favored for top-5 picks, suggesting Miami's standing among lottery teams
- Market trading volume of $94k on the comparable Oklahoma City top-3 contract indicates active interest in lottery outcomes, while Miami's volume reflects moderate participant engagement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbalottery
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbalottery

## License

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