# Will Luka Doncic win MVP

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 9 contracts — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbamvp
Updated: 2026-07-13T01:20:49.182Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 3¢ | −2pp | $976 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-brunson-win-mvp-jalen-brunson-kalshi-kxnbamvp-27-jbrunson11 |
| Anthony Edwards | 4¢ | +2pp | $578 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-edwards-win-mvp-anthony-edwards-kalshi-kxnbamvp-27-aedwards5 |
| Jayson Tatum | 5¢ | +1pp | $520 | kalshi | /markets/will-jayson-tatum-win-mvp-jayson-tatum-kalshi-kxnbamvp-27-jtatum0 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 33¢ | −2pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/will-victor-wembanyama-win-mvp-victor-wembanyama-kalshi-kxnbamvp-27-vwembanyama1 |
| Luka Doncic | 15¢ | −1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-luka-doncic-win-mvp-luka-doncic-kalshi-kxnbamvp-27-ldoncic77 |
| Cade Cunningham | 3¢ | −1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-cade-cunningham-win-mvp-cade-cunningham-kalshi-kxnbamvp-27-ccunningham2 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shai-gilgeous-alexander-win-mvp-shai-gilgeous-kalshi-kxnbamvp-27-sgilgeousalexander2 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-giannis-antetokounmpo-win-mvp-giannis-antetok-kalshi-kxnbamvp-27-gantetokounmpo34 |
| Nikola Jokić | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nikola-joki-win-mvp-nikola-joki-kalshi-kxnbamvp-27-njokic15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 8 |
| 2026-06-29 | 8 |
| 2026-07-06 | 9 |
| 2026-07-08 | 10 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

At 14%, the market assesses Luka Doncic's probability of winning the 2026-27 NBA MVP award as relatively low compared to peers like Victor Wembanyama (31%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (14%). This probability reflects expectations about performance during the upcoming season, which begins in October 2026. The low odds likely stem from recent historical context: Doncic has won MVP once (2024) while Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander represent emerging peak performers. Doncic's probability would rise if he demonstrates statistical dominance early in the 2026-27 season or if competing players face injury. The main resolution point is the regular season itself, with voting occurring in April 2027. Current market depth appears limited, with only $218 in 24-hour volume on Doncic's contract.

### Key factors

- Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander are trading at 31¢ and 14¢ respectively, suggesting the market views them as primary MVP contenders heading into 2026-27
- Doncic won MVP in 2024 and typically voters consider recent winners less favorably, which may partially explain the 14% pricing
- The 2026-27 season begins in October 2026 and MVP voting concludes in April 2027, providing a defined window for seasonal performance to accumulate
- Injury to competing candidates like Wembanyama or a breakout statistical season from Doncic would be the primary drivers of significant probability repricing
- Trading volume on Doncic's contract ($218 in 24 hours) is lower than Wembanyama ($512) and Gilgeous-Alexander ($1,148), indicating less market conviction or liquidity in this specific outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbamvp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbamvp

## License

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