# Will Atlanta qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbaplayin
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.887Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-15

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $598

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 39¢ | +22pp | $552 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-western-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27west-dal |
| Utah | 32¢ | −3pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-western-c-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27west-uta |
| Miami | 25¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-eastern-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-mia |
| Atlanta | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-easter-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-atl |
| Brooklyn | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooklyn-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-easte-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-bkn |
| Boston | 16¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-eastern-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-bos |
| Charlotte | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-charlotte-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-east-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-cha |
| Chicago | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-easter-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-chi |
| Cleveland | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-east-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-cle |
| Detroit | 4¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-easter-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-det |
| Indiana | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indiana-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-easter-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-ind |
| Milwaukee | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-east-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-mil |
| New York | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-easte-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-nyk |
| Orlando | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-orlando-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-easter-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-orl |
| Philadelphia | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-e-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-phi |
| Toronto | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toronto-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-easter-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-tor |
| Washington | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-eas-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27east-was |
| Denver | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-western-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27west-den |
| Golden State | 39¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-golden-state-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-w-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27west-gsw |
| Houston | 29¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-qualify-for-the-pro-basketball-wester-kalshi-kxnbaplayin-27west-hou |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | 19 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-10 · Dallas +22pp 20→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Miami −18pp 45→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Orlando −12pp 34→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Golden State +12pp 24→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Utah +11pp 16→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that the Atlanta Hawks finish the 2025-26 NBA season within the top 10 of the Eastern Conference, qualifying for the play-in tournament. The 6% forecast reflects the Hawks' current position outside likely playoff contention, with their path dependent on both their own win-rate improvement and other teams' performance over the remaining schedule. The team's roster construction, health status of key players, and trade deadline moves represent primary variables that could shift this outcome. The resolution will be determined by final regular-season standings on April 10, 2026, when the NBA regular season concludes and playoff qualification is mathematically determined.

### Key factors

- Hawks' current win-loss record and remaining schedule games relative to the 10th seed cutoff in the Eastern Conference
- Performance of marginal playoff-contention teams (currently Charlotte, Miami, and Orlando are similarly priced at 6%) competing for the same play-in spots
- Health and availability of Atlanta's core rotation players throughout the remainder of the regular season
- Any significant roster changes via trade deadline (February 10, 2026) that could alter team trajectory and competitiveness
- Conference-wide competitive dynamics, including performance shifts in upper-tier teams that could create or eliminate play-in opportunities

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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