# Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers

> Philadelphia leads at 86%, runner-up 82% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbaplayoff
Updated: 2026-07-27T06:20:49.254Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Philadelphia at 86%
- Runner-up: New York at 82%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 86¢ | ±0 | $100 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-philadelphia-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-phi |
| New York | 82¢ | −1pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-new-york-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-nyk |
| Boston | 77¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-boston-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-bos |
| Detroit | 77¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-detroit-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-det |
| Cleveland | 73¢ | +2pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-cleveland-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-cle |
| Houston | 71¢ | +2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-houston-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-hou |
| Los Angeles L | 69¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-los-angeles-l-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-lal |
| Toronto | 66¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-toronto-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-tor |
| Indiana | 55¢ | +1pp | $161 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-indiana-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-ind |
| Golden State | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-golden-state-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-gsw |
| Phoenix | 45¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-phoenix-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-phx |
| Utah | 40¢ | ±0 | $252 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-utah-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-uta |
| Dallas | 35¢ | −1pp | $149 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-dallas-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-dal |
| Charlotte | 35¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-charlotte-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-cha |
| Washington | 31¢ | +1pp | $517 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-washington-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-was |
| New Orleans | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-new-orleans-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-nop |
| Memphis | 13¢ | ±0 | $352 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-memphis-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-mem |
| Chicago | 10¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-chicago-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-chi |
| Milwaukee | 6¢ | ±0 | $185 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-milwaukee-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-mil |
| Brooklyn | 5¢ | ±0 | $73 | kalshi | /markets/pro-basketball-playoff-qualifiers-brooklyn-kalshi-kxnbaplayoff-27-bkn |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Philadelphia | New York | Boston |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | — | 72 | 72 |
| 2026-06-28 | 29 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 62 | 80 | 79 |
| 2026-07-19 | 77 | 80 | 76 |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 81 | 76 |
| 2026-07-27 | 87 | 82 | 77 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-22 · Los Angeles L +12pp 48→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Los Angeles L −9pp 66→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Los Angeles L −9pp 57→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Chicago +7pp 10→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Washington +7pp 34→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market aggregates predictions on which NBA team will qualify for the 2027 playoffs, with the current leader priced at 76% probability. The market reflects expectations about regular-season performance through April 2027, when playoff qualification is determined. Teams with higher probabilities are those perceived as having stronger rosters, favorable schedules, or track records of sustained winning. The outcome depends on measurable factors: win-loss records accumulated over the full season, playoff seeding positions finalized at season's end, and any mid-season roster transactions. The single largest catalyst is the regular season's completion in April 2027, which definitively determines which teams meet qualification thresholds. Until then, contract prices will fluctuate based on injury updates, trade activity, and actual game results that alter playoff positioning.

### Key factors

- Regular-season win-loss record from June 2026 through April 2027 directly determines playoff eligibility; teams must finish in top positions or meet league-specific criteria
- Injury status of key roster players significantly affects competitive strength; major injuries to All-Star players typically lower a team's probability
- Trade market activity during the season can improve or weaken rosters; acquisitions at deadlines may shift expectations for specific franchises
- Strength of schedule variation means some teams face easier/harder remaining opponents, affecting their probability of reaching qualifying thresholds
- Current market pricing reflects existing roster composition and perceived trajectory; changes in trading or free-agent availability will prompt repricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbaplayoff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbaplayoff

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.