# Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Seattle before the start of the 2027-28 regular season

> Do not relocate/announce a relocation leads at 82%, runner-up 14% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbarelocation
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:50.724Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Do not relocate/announce a relocation at 82%
- Runner-up: St. Louis at 14%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Do not relocate/announce a relocation | 82¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-portland-pro-basketball-team-announce-the-kalshi-kxnbarelocation-27por-none |
| St. Louis | 14¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-portland-pro-basketball-team-announce-the-kalshi-kxnbarelocation-27por-stl |
| Kansas City | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-portland-pro-basketball-team-announce-the-kalshi-kxnbarelocation-27por-kc |
| Nashville | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-portland-pro-basketball-team-announce-the-kalshi-kxnbarelocation-27por-nsh |
| Tampa Bay | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-portland-pro-basketball-team-announce-the-kalshi-kxnbarelocation-27por-tb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Do not relocate/announce a relocation | St. Louis |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | — | 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | 68 | — |
| 2026-09-03 | 49 | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 68 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | — | 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | — | 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | 81 | 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | 77 | 10 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-23 · Do not relocate/announce a relocation +13pp 68→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · St. Louis −12pp 14→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · St. Louis +8pp 2→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Do not relocate/announce a relocation −4pp 81→77¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets currently price an 78% likelihood that the Portland Trail Blazers will not relocate or announce relocation before the 2027-28 NBA season begins, with a 22% combined probability of moves to Seattle (8%) or Tampa Bay (4%). This reflects modest but non-trivial uncertainty about the franchise's future location. The high probability of staying suggests traders believe current ownership and local stakeholders have sufficient incentive to keep the team in Portland, though the franchise's competitive performance and arena infrastructure could drive changes. NBA relocation discussions typically accelerate during ownership transitions or when market conditions shift significantly. Key resolution events include any public statements by current ownership, potential ownership sales, arena renovation announcements or denials, and the franchise's on-court performance trajectory through the 2026-27 season.

### Key factors

- Trail Blazers' current ownership structure and stated commitment to Portland operations
- Availability and viability of competitive NBA markets (Seattle arena readiness, Tampa Bay market size and existing teams)
- Franchise competitiveness and ticket sales trends over the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons
- Portland's arena infrastructure plans and local government support for facilities improvements
- Any public statements from NBA leadership, ownership groups, or city officials regarding relocation discussions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbarelocation
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbarelocation

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.