# Who will win Rookie of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbaroy
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.407Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-08

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $318

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 6¢ | — | $153 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-wilson-win-rookie-of-the-year-caleb-wil-kalshi-kxnbaroy-27-cwil |
| Cameron Boozer | 10¢ | +5pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-boozer-win-rookie-of-the-year-cameron-kalshi-kxnbaroy-27-cboo |
| Darryn Peterson | 8¢ | −2pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-darryn-peterson-win-rookie-of-the-year-darryn-kalshi-kxnbaroy-27-dpet |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 8 |
| 2026-06-26 | 7 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Cameron Boozer +5pp 2→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 15% probability reflects market expectations for a specific Rookie of the Year winner in what appears to be a fragmented field. The low individual contract prices suggest no single candidate has emerged as the clear favorite, with the highest-priced contract at 11 cents indicating distributed expectations across multiple rookies. The current probability level is driven by competitive uncertainty among candidates like Jadarian Price, Jordyn Tyson, and Makai Lemon. Movement in this probability will depend on performance metrics during the remainder of the season and how individual rookie statistics develop relative to peers. The primary resolution point will be the official Rookie of the Year award announcement at season's end, which typically occurs in early 2027, making regular performance data and voting patterns key indicators of probability shifts.

### Key factors

- No single candidate contracts above 11 cents suggests a competitive, multi-candidate field rather than a consensus favorite
- The gap between individual contract prices (7-11 cents) indicates meaningful probability distributed across at least 3-4 serious contenders
- 24-hour trading volumes remain modest (under $300 for top contracts), suggesting limited market certainty or attention to individual rookie races
- Performance statistics and cumulative season data through the remainder of 2026 will directly influence probabilities as voters evaluate candidates
- The official award announcement timing in early 2027 serves as the hard resolution date, making pre-announcement period trading patterns a potential leading indicator

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nbaroy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nbaroy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.